Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Changjiu Holdings Ltd HK$9.54, price HK$3.18, upside +200.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
32‑month range HK$3.10 – HK$94.64 · fair‑value band HK$6.21 – HK$11.92 · the HK$3.18 price screens below the HK$9.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Changjiu Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides pledged vehicle monitoring and automobile dealership operation management services in China. The company offers VFS system that collects, processes, and analyzes data from pledged vehicles.
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Changjiu Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides pledged vehicle monitoring and automobile dealership operation management services in China. The company offers VFS system that collects, processes, and analyzes data from pledged vehicles. It primarily serves financial institutions, such as commercial banks and automobile finance companies, as well as automobile dealerships. In addition, the company offers new automobile circulation services. The company was formerly known as Changjiu Digital Technology Limited and changed its name to Changjiu Holdings Limited in September 2023. Changjiu Holdings Limited was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959) currently trades at HK$3.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.54, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$27.78 per share, and 16 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$3.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.70, and 1 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$6.21 (bear) to HK$11.92 (bull), the price of HK$3.18 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Changjiu Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2026 versus 576M CNY in FY2022, a compound +29.6%/yr. Reported net income was 142M CNY in FY2026, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$649M (≈ $82.8M) · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3300 · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 28.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 32.8% · Operating margin 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 200%, 6959 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.21Fair Value HK$9.54Bull HK$11.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0787 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+139.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 11%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth173% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)19.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
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Is Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.54 versus a price of HK$3.18, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6959?
Our model-based fair value for Changjiu Holdings Ltd is HK$9.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.18.
What is the quality score of 6959?
Changjiu Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.21, optimistic scenario HK$11.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changjiu Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.54, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$3.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.21, optimistic scenario HK$11.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Changjiu Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changjiu Holdings Ltd it is HK$9.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$3.18. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changjiu Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6959 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.18, fair value HK$9.54, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6959?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.54). For Changjiu Holdings Ltd the two are HK$6.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changjiu Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Changjiu Holdings Ltd at about HK$649M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.18; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6959?
Our models span a range for Changjiu Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$6.21, base HK$9.54, optimistic HK$11.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$3.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6959?
Changjiu Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changjiu Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 28.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6959 from its 52-week high?
Changjiu Holdings Ltd trades at HK$3.18, about 53% below its 52-week high of HK$6.80 and 3% above the low of HK$3.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changjiu Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changjiu Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$3.18, calculated fair value HK$9.54 (+200%), Quality Score 47/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6959 calculated?
We run Changjiu Holdings Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Changjiu Holdings Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$3.18. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.54, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changjiu Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.21). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$6.21 to HK$11.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Changjiu Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
The market capitalisation of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is HK$649M (≈ $82.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Earnings per share at Changjiu Holdings Ltd are HK$0.3300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
The net margin of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is 8.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is 32.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
The operating margin of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Revenue at Changjiu Holdings Ltd is growing +173% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959)?
Earnings per share at Changjiu Holdings Ltd are growing −28.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959) generate?
The free cash flow of Changjiu Holdings Ltd is −194M CNY (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Changjiu Holdings Ltd (6959) hold?
Changjiu Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 61.5M CNY net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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