Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd HK$0.05, price HK$0.05, upside -1.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0450 – HK$1.21 · fair‑value band HK$0.0505 – HK$0.0556 · the HK$0.0510 price screens above the HK$0.0505 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Kinetix Systems Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides information technology (IT) services in Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: IT Infrastructure Solutions Services, IT Development Solutions Services, IT Maintenance and Support Services segments.
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Kinetix Systems Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides information technology (IT) services in Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: IT Infrastructure Solutions Services, IT Development Solutions Services, IT Maintenance and Support Services segments. The company offers IT infrastructure solutions services to clients by advising them the hardware and/or software that their IT systems would require and procuring the relevant hardware and/or software and integrating them with client's IT systems. It also provides IT development solutions services, including system analysis and design, software development, and technology consultancy services; and IT maintenance and support services. In addition, the company provides entertainment products and human resources services. It serves private and public sectors, including government agencies, banks and financial institutions, and technology and media companies, as well as transportation and logistics firms, etc. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606) currently trades at HK$0.0510, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0505, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1900 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.0510 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0200, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0505 (bear) to HK$0.0556 (bull), the price of HK$0.0510 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$393M in FY2025 versus HK$254M in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$73.7M (≈ $9.4M) · P/S ratio 0.19 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.0% · Operating margin 0.4% · Revenue (TTM) HK$393M · Revenue growth (YoY) +15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at −1%, 8606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0505Fair Value HK$0.0505Bull HK$0.0556
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.6% vs −21.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 469 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8606
Frequently asked questions
Is Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0505 versus a price of HK$0.0510, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 8606?
Our model-based fair value for Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0505 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0510.
What is the quality score of 8606?
Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0505 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0505, optimistic scenario HK$0.0556. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0505, about −1% upside versus a price of HK$0.0510 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0505, optimistic scenario HK$0.0556. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$393M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8606 use?
Our models discount Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.92 %: that much free cash flow Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0505 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0510. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8606 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0510, fair value HK$0.0505, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8606?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0510); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0505). For Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0005 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd at about HK$73.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0510; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0505 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8606?
Our models span a range for Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0505, base HK$0.0505, optimistic HK$0.0556 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0510). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8606 from its 52-week high?
Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.0510, about 52% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1070 and 13% above the low of HK$0.0450 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0505 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0510, calculated fair value HK$0.0505 (−1%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8606 calculated?
We run Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0505, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0510. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0505, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.0505 to HK$0.0556), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The market capitalisation of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is HK$73.7M (≈ $9.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The net margin of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is −7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
The operating margin of Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
Revenue at Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606)?
Earnings per share at Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd (8606) hold?
Kinetix Systems Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$40.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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