9616 (9616) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · Market cap HK$1.3B

9 9616 9616 · HK

PriceHK$2.06

Fair ValueHK$3.06

Upside+48.6%

Quality46/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$1.41 – HK$4.58

Fair value as of: Jul 3, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −5.9% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$1.97 – HK$3.49 · fair‑value band HK$1.41 – HK$4.58 · the HK$2.06 price screens below the HK$3.06 fair value. As of Jul 3, 2026.

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Analysis

9616 (9616) currently trades at HK$2.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.06 — implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, 9616 generated revenue of HK$2.0B at a net margin of 19.9%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at HK$1.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 3, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.0B

Revenue growth (YoY) +1.1%

Net margin 19.9%

Return on equity 16.8%

Free cash flow HK$286M FY2025

P/E ratio 2.8

More key figures

Operating margin 32.9%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.3200

Dividend yield 12.5%

EPS growth (YoY) +5.4%

Net debt HK$1.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

9616 reported revenue of HK$2.0B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$394M in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +10.6%/yr

FY21 HK$1.4B

FY22 HK$1.5B

FY23 HK$1.8B

FY24 HK$2.0B

FY25 HK$2.0B

Net income +8.5%/yr

FY21 HK$284M

FY22 HK$385M

FY23 HK$430M

FY24 HK$466M

FY25 HK$394M

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Similar stocks

6 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 3, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN	966.48 MXN	894.16 MXN	-7%
9901 9901	HK$36.30	HK$4.84	-87%
TAL Education Group T1AL34	R$4.86	R$0.9200	-81%
Graham Holdings GHC	$1,141	$1,253	+10%
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR	$36.49	$39.86	+9%
Covista Inc CVSA	$124.45	$150.42	+21%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 9616 (9616) undervalued?

As of Jul 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.06 versus a price of HK$2.06 — about +49% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 9616?

Our model-based fair value for 9616 is HK$3.06 (as of Jul 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.06.

What is the quality score of 9616?

9616 has a Quality Score of 46/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 9616 (9616)?

9616 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.0B (latest available figure, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9616?

The net profit margin of 9616 is about 19.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 19.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 9616 pay a dividend?

9616 currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.54% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 3, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.