ABC arbitrage SA (ABCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · FR · Market cap €304M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €4.00 to €3.99 (−0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.09 – €6.07 · fair‑value band €2.99 – €4.99 · the €5.13 price screens above the €3.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
ABC arbitrage SA (ABCA) currently trades at €5.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.99, implying the stock looks roughly 22.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ABC arbitrage SA generated revenue of €59.9M at a net margin of 41.9%. Revenue declined 18.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €7.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €2.99 (bear case) to €4.99 (bull case); at €5.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -22%, ABCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€6.91) versus Asset-Based (€1.91). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ABC arbitrage SA, together with its subsidiaries, develops arbitrage strategies for liquid assets in Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
ABC arbitrage SA, together with its subsidiaries, develops arbitrage strategies for liquid assets in Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It offers liquidity, statistical, risk, and derivatives arbitrage strategies; portfolio management services for financial instruments; and investment strategy advisory services for investors and professional clients. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ABC arbitrage SA reported revenue of €59.7M in FY2025 versus €64.3M in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was €25.1M in FY2025, compounding −2.7%/yr from FY2021.
ABCA screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 971 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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