Novacyt S.A (ALNOV) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · FR · Market cap €33.2M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €0.1500 to €0.1100 (−26.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +13.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.1300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€0.0700 to €0.1300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.3165 – €5.08 · fair‑value band €0.0700 – €0.1300 · the €0.4600 price screens above the €0.1100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Novacyt S.A (ALNOV) currently trades at €0.4600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.1100, implying the stock looks roughly 76.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €20.0M. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -65.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €8.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.0700 (bear case) to €0.1300 (bull case); at €0.4600, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -76%, ALNOV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Novacyt S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and commercializes a range of molecular assays and instrumentation to deliver workflows and services for human health, animal health, and environmental sectors. It operates through Yourgene Health and Primer Design segments.
Full company description
Novacyt S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and commercializes a range of molecular assays and instrumentation to deliver workflows and services for human health, animal health, and environmental sectors. It operates through Yourgene Health and Primer Design segments. The Yourgene Health segment delivers molecular diagnostic and screening solutions, across reproductive health and precision medicine. The Primer Design segment designs, manufactures, and markets molecular real-time qPCR testing devices and reagents in the areas of infectious diseases. It operates in the United Kingdom, France, Europe, the United States, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Le Vésinet, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novacyt S.A reported revenue of €20.4M in FY2025 versus €95.8M in FY2021, a compound −32.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€23.3M in FY2025.
ALNOV screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 352 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $100.68 | $74.79 | -26% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $316.44 | $186.28 | -41% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $83.56 | $65.57 | -22% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $43.04 | $38.44 | -11% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $85.73 | $41.02 | -52% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €34.59 | €33.87 | -2% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥149.43 | ¥147.63 | -1% |
| Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co 688271 | ¥109.00 | ¥43.60 | -60% |
| Demant A/S DEMANT | kr 276.60 | kr 161.17 | -42% |
| Getinge AB GETIB | kr 206.80 | kr 192.14 | -7% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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