Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of ALPEK, S.A. $1.22, price $0.87, upside +39.5%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
- Add to watchlist
AS
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
ALPEK, S.A.
ALPKF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $1.22 · Undervalued (+39.5%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch ALPEK, S.A. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.
Watch for free
Pro now: $1 first month
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4462 – $1.18 · fair‑value band $0.7600 – $1.73 · the $0.8748 price screens below the $1.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals.
Show more
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals. The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets. It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets. In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Stock analysis
ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF) currently trades at $0.8748, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.22, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.02 per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the $0.8748 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.1900, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.7600 (bear) to $1.73 (bull), the price of $0.8748 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ALPEK, S.A. reported revenue of 127B MXN in FY2025 versus 156B MXN in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B MXN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.8B · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% · Operating margin 5.5% · Revenue (TTM) 122B MXN · Revenue growth (YoY) −15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 39%, ALPKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7600
Fair Value $1.22
Bull $1.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.6600
$1.04
$1.72
79
Growth DCF
$0.7000
$1.06
$1.66
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6100
$1.16
$1.91
73
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.6600
$1.04
$1.72
79
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1800
$0.4400
$0.8200
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6100
$1.16
$1.91
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.3700
$0.5900
$0.8300
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6200
$1.02
$1.46
68
Multiples
EV/EBIT
n/a
$0.1900
$0.4200
61
EV/EBITDA
$0.7800
$1.28
$1.79
65
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.1200
$0.3800
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3600
$0.4900
$0.7300
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.7000
$1.06
$1.66
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.1800
$0.4700
$0.8500
68
Notify me when ALPKF reaches fair value
Put ALPKF on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 90
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
96
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
28/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.5% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in MXN, Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and −2.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.4%
Watch ALPKF, get fair value alerts →
Compare ALPEK, S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 696 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $474.65 | $441.72 | −7% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $330.44 | $151.68 | −54% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $274.58 | $96.56 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $279.19 | $121.30 | −57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,360 | CHF 1,527 | −55% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥69.45 | ¥68.03 | −2% |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 92.30 | CHF 29.70 | −68% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,444 | ₹1,479 | −39% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $104.67 | $76.98 | −26% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.22 versus a price of $0.8748, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALPKF?
Our model-based fair value for ALPEK, S.A. is $1.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8748.
What is the quality score of ALPKF?
ALPEK, S.A. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7600, optimistic scenario $1.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ALPEK, S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.22, about +39% upside versus a price of $0.8748 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.7600, optimistic scenario $1.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
ALPEK, S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 122B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ALPEK, S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALPKF use?
Our models discount ALPEK, S.A. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ALPEK, S.A. that is +3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ALPEK, S.A. grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ALPEK, S.A. (+3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.47 %: that much free cash flow ALPEK, S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ALPEK, S.A. it is $1.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8748. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ALPEK, S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALPKF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.8748, fair value $1.22, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALPKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8748); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.22). For ALPEK, S.A. the two are $0.3452 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ALPEK, S.A. worth?
The market values ALPEK, S.A. at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8748; our models calculate a fair value of $1.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALPKF?
Our models span a range for ALPEK, S.A.: cautious scenario $0.7600, base $1.22, optimistic $1.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8748). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ALPEK, S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −11.4%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALPKF from its 52-week high?
ALPEK, S.A. trades at $0.8748, at its 52-week high of $0.8748 and 96% above the low of $0.4462 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ALPEK, S.A.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ALPEK, S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8748, calculated fair value $1.22 (+39%), Quality Score 49/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALPKF calculated?
We run ALPEK, S.A. through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ALPEK, S.A. currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $0.8748. Our model-based fair value is $1.22, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ALPEK, S.A. right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.7600 to $1.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ALPEK, S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
The market capitalisation of ALPEK, S.A. is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
Earnings per share at ALPEK, S.A. are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
The net margin of ALPEK, S.A. is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ALPEK, S.A. is −11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ALPEK, S.A. is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
The operating margin of ALPEK, S.A. is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
Revenue at ALPEK, S.A. is growing −15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF)?
Earnings per share at ALPEK, S.A. are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ALPEK, S.A. (ALPKF) carry?
The net debt of ALPEK, S.A. is 29.6B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch ALPEK, S.A. in the live analysis
One click puts ALPEK, S.A. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.