Allianz SE VNA O.N. (ALV) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · DE · Market cap €160B · ISIN DE0008404005
What is Allianz SE VNA O.N. really worth?
A solid business, but trading 69% above our fair value of €266.04.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Allianz SE VNA O.N. is €266.04 per share against a price of €450.60, so the fair value sits 41% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€332.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €131.74 – €453.30 · fair‑value band €199.53 – €332.56 · the €450.60 price screens above the €266.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
Allianz SE VNA O.N. (ALV) currently trades at €450.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €266.04, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €231.52 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €450.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €110.80, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Allianz SE VNA O.N. generated revenue of €115B at a net margin of 10.4%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €1.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €199.53 (bear case) to €332.56 (bull case); at €450.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −41%, ALV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €21.13 per share, which is 7.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€231.52) versus Asset-Based (€110.80). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide.
Full company description
Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide. The company's Property-Casualty segment offers various insurance products, including motor liability, accident, fire and property, general liability, credit, and travel, and assistance services to private and corporate customers. Its Life/Health segment provides a range of life and health insurance products on an individual and a group basis, such as annuities, endowment and term insurance, and unit-linked and investment-oriented products, as well as private and supplemental health, and long-term care insurance products. The company's Asset Management segment offers institutional and retail asset management products and services to third-party investors comprising equity and fixed income funds, cash, and multi-assets; and alternative investment products that include real estate, infrastructure debt/equity, real assets, liquid alternatives, and solutions business. In addition, it provides banking services for retail clients; and digital investment services. Allianz SE was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allianz SE VNA O.N. reported revenue of €138B in FY2025 versus €110B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was €10.8B in FY2025, compounding +13.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.6 % · buybacks/dilution +1.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ALV screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AA targeted by Germany’s Allianz in £5bn takeover swoop
- Is Allianz (XTRA:ALV) Cheap Or Already Fairly Priced Today?
- Commercial Insurance Global Market Outlook Report, 2026-2031 - Profiles Allianz, AXA, Chubb, Zurich, and 16 Other Companies
- Vistry shares dive as Allianz cuts insurance cover for suppliers
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Allianz SE VNA O.N. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB80 | 1.67 THB | 1.48 THB | −11% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 596.00 | CHF 335.07 | −44% |
| AXA SA CS | €44.64 | €39.90 | −11% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €44.11 | €10.92 | −75% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$108.85 | C$57.05 | −48% |
| American International Group AIG | $76.14 | $80.91 | +6% |
| The Hartford Insurance Group HIG | $137.38 | $133.10 | −3% |
| Arch Capital Group ACGL | $98.10 | $124.45 | +27% |
| Swiss Life Holding SLHN | CHF 919.00 | CHF 425.23 | −54% |
| Sampo Oyj SAMPO | €9.68 | €6.06 | −37% |
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