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Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alithya Group inc Class A C$2.22, price C$1.07, upside +107.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · CA · ISIN CA01643B1067

AG Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Alithya Group inc Class A

ALYA · TO

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value C$2.22 · Strongly undervalued (+107%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$4.05 C$0.9700 Fair Value C$2.22 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$0.9700 – C$4.05 · fair‑value band C$1.19 – C$3.57 · the C$1.07 price screens below the C$2.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alithya Group Inc. provides information technology services and solutions through digital technologies in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers strategic consulting, enterprise transformation, and business enablement services.

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Alithya Group Inc. provides information technology services and solutions through digital technologies in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers strategic consulting, enterprise transformation, and business enablement services. It also provides advisory services for digital strategy, organization performance, cybersecurity, enterprise architecture, and change and program management. In addition, the company offers enterprise resource planning, supply chain management, enterprise performance management, customer relationship management, cloud infrastructure, custom application development, legacy systems modernization, control/software engineering, data and analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence, human capital management, and intelligent document processing services. Further, it provides digital adoption, training, managed, change enablement, and quality engineering services. Additionally, the company offers AI-FI, an integrated artificial intelligence and fidelity solution; Alithya Rapid QA, an automated and manual testing tool for software solutions; Alithya Adaptive Learning, a platform for on-demand training for enterprise applications; CASSI analytics, a solution for nuclear plants to generate and distribute maintenance performance reports; and SIDER, a secure integrated system to distribute electronic medical results. It serves financial services, energy, manufacturing, telecommunications, transportation and logistics, higher education services, healthcare, government, and other sectors. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Montreal, Canada.

Stock analysis

Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA) currently trades at C$1.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.22, implying the stock looks roughly 51.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$2.22 per share, and 5 of the 10 models we run sit above the C$1.07 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$0.3000, and 5 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: C$1.19 (bear) to C$3.57 (bull), the price of C$1.07 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Alithya Group inc Class A reported revenue of C$477M in FY2026 versus C$438M in FY2022, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −C$38.8M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap C$105M (≈ $74.0M) · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.4000 · Net margin −8.1% · Return on equity −23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% · Operating margin 5.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$477M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 66% fair-value upside, at 107%, ALYA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$1.19 Fair Value C$2.22 Bull C$3.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$1.19 C$2.22 C$3.57 78
Growth DCF C$1.18 C$2.12 C$3.29 77
5Y EBITDA Exit C$1.97 C$4.05 C$6.53 73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$1.19 C$2.22 C$3.57 78
5Y Revenue Exit C$0.1600 C$0.5600 C$1.03 68
5Y EBITDA Exit C$1.97 C$4.05 C$6.53 73
10Y Revenue Exit C$0.5700 C$1.04 C$1.60 65
10Y EBITDA Exit C$1.59 C$3.14 C$5.28 66
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a C$0.3000 C$0.6500 61
EV/EBITDA C$3.02 C$4.40 C$5.78 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$0.8000 C$1.07 C$1.60 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$1.18 C$2.12 C$3.29 77
Rev-Margin DCF C$0.1600 C$0.6000 C$1.15 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.3% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.9% (2021) → 1.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.5% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)−3.4%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.6%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 497 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +108% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.79× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.52× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 4.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.82× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)61 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $232.76 $188.22 −19%
Accenture plc ACN $183.52 $305.06 +66%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,090 ₹2,993 +43%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,021 ₹1,690 +66%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,257 ₹1,926 +53%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $34.67 $32.47 −6%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $59.14 $132.01 +123%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹164.90 ₹287.90 +75%
Capgemini SE CAP €103.75 €223.90 +116%
CDW Corporation CDW $146.16 $162.00 +11%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alithya Group inc Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALYA

Frequently asked questions

Is Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.22 versus a price of C$1.07, about +107% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALYA?
Our model-based fair value for Alithya Group inc Class A is C$2.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.07.
What is the quality score of ALYA?
Alithya Group inc Class A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$1.19, optimistic scenario C$3.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alithya Group inc Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.22, about +107% upside versus a price of C$1.07 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$1.19, optimistic scenario C$3.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Alithya Group inc Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$477M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alithya Group inc Class A would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALYA use?
Our models discount Alithya Group inc Class A at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alithya Group inc Class A that is +7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alithya Group inc Class A grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alithya Group inc Class A (+7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.58 %: that much free cash flow Alithya Group inc Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alithya Group inc Class A it is C$2.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$1.07. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alithya Group inc Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALYA trades below its calculated fair value: price C$1.07, fair value C$2.22, a gap of about +107% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALYA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.22). For Alithya Group inc Class A the two are C$1.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alithya Group inc Class A worth?
The market values Alithya Group inc Class A at about C$105M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$1.07; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALYA?
Our models span a range for Alithya Group inc Class A: cautious scenario C$1.19, base C$2.22, optimistic C$3.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$1.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALYA?
The PEG ratio of Alithya Group inc Class A is 1.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alithya Group inc Class A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −23.7%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALYA from its 52-week high?
Alithya Group inc Class A trades at C$1.07, about 50% below its 52-week high of C$2.15 and 10% above the low of C$0.9700 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alithya Group inc Class A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alithya Group inc Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$1.07, calculated fair value C$2.22 (+107%), Quality Score 47/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALYA calculated?
We run Alithya Group inc Class A through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alithya Group inc Class A currently trades 107 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$1.07. Our model-based fair value is C$2.22, about +107% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alithya Group inc Class A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$1.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (C$1.19 to C$3.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Alithya Group inc Class A

How large is the market capitalisation of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The market capitalisation of Alithya Group inc Class A is C$105M (≈ $74.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alithya Group inc Class A is 0.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Earnings per share at Alithya Group inc Class A are C$−0.4000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The net margin of Alithya Group inc Class A is −8.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alithya Group inc Class A is −23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alithya Group inc Class A is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
The operating margin of Alithya Group inc Class A is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Revenue at Alithya Group inc Class A is growing −9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA)?
Earnings per share at Alithya Group inc Class A are growing +243% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alithya Group inc Class A (ALYA) carry?
The net debt of Alithya Group inc Class A is C$114M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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