American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of American Overseas Group Ltd $1,654, price $1,000, upside +65.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $90.00 – $1,500 · fair‑value band $1,249 – $2,254 · the $1,000 price screens below the $1,654 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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American Overseas Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance and reinsurance services in Barbados and the United States. It offers property and casualty insurance, including non-standard auto insurance through specialty managing general agents; and management services.
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American Overseas Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance and reinsurance services in Barbados and the United States. It offers property and casualty insurance, including non-standard auto insurance through specialty managing general agents; and management services. The company is also involved in reinsurance, which assumes and reinsures nonstandard auto business. The company was formerly known as RAM Holdings Ltd. and changed its name to American Overseas Group Limited in December 2011. American Overseas Group Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) currently trades at $1,000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,654, implying the stock looks roughly 39.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1,738 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $1,000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $831.95, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1,249 (bear) to $2,254 (bull), the price of $1,000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
American Overseas Group Ltd reported revenue of $75.2M in FY2025 versus $32.7M in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $10.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $57.5M · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $−2,851 · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 11.3% · Revenue (TTM) $75.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 65%, AOREF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1,249Fair Value $1,654Bull $2,254
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.1% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 19%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−33.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −34.9% a year for the price.
Compare American Overseas Group Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Reinsurance · 28 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Reinsurance median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Overseas Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AOREF
Frequently asked questions
Is American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,654 versus a price of $1,000, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AOREF?
Our model-based fair value for American Overseas Group Ltd is $1,654 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,000.
What is the quality score of AOREF?
American Overseas Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,654 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1,249, optimistic scenario $2,254. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Overseas Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,654, about +65% upside versus a price of $1,000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1,249, optimistic scenario $2,254. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
American Overseas Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $75.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, American Overseas Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -33.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AOREF use?
Our models discount American Overseas Group Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For American Overseas Group Ltd that is -33.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at American Overseas Group Ltd grew +25.1 % a year. The price currently implies -33.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into American Overseas Group Ltd (-33.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 29.73 %: that much free cash flow American Overseas Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Overseas Group Ltd it is $1,654 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1,000. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Overseas Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AOREF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1,000, fair value $1,654, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOREF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,654). For American Overseas Group Ltd the two are $653.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Overseas Group Ltd worth?
The market values American Overseas Group Ltd at about $57.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1,000; our models calculate a fair value of $1,654 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOREF?
Our models span a range for American Overseas Group Ltd: cautious scenario $1,249, base $1,654, optimistic $2,254 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1,000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Overseas Group Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 20.7%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOREF from its 52-week high?
American Overseas Group Ltd trades at $1,000, about 33% below its 52-week high of $1,500 and at the low of $1,000 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,654 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Overseas Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value MUV2, Swiss Re AG, Hannover Rück SE, Reinsurance Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Overseas Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1,000, calculated fair value $1,654 (+65%), Quality Score 48/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOREF calculated?
We run American Overseas Group Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,654, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. American Overseas Group Ltd currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $1,000. Our model-based fair value is $1,654, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Overseas Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1,249). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($1,249 to $2,254) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) come from?
Earnings per share at American Overseas Group Ltd grew −15.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.2 %, EBIT margin −6.8 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of American Overseas Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The market capitalisation of American Overseas Group Ltd is $57.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Overseas Group Ltd is 0.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
Earnings per share at American Overseas Group Ltd are $−2,851. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The net margin of American Overseas Group Ltd is 14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Overseas Group Ltd is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Overseas Group Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
The operating margin of American Overseas Group Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
Revenue at American Overseas Group Ltd is growing −12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF)?
Earnings per share at American Overseas Group Ltd are growing +9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does American Overseas Group Ltd (AOREF) hold?
American Overseas Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, $28.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026