Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ariadne Australia Ltd A$0.52, price A$0.46, upside +14.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3972 – A$0.7249 · fair‑value band A$0.3600 – A$0.5200 · the A$0.4550 price screens below the A$0.5200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ariadne Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment activities in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Investments and Property segments. It also invests in securities, as well as provides financial services.
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Ariadne Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment activities in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Investments and Property segments. It also invests in securities, as well as provides financial services. In addition, the company engages in marina management, residential development, food life extension technology, and mineral exploration activities. Ariadne Australia Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA) currently trades at A$0.4550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5200, implying the stock looks roughly 12.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of A$0.7900 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the A$0.4550 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.2800, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3600 (bear) to A$0.5200 (bull), the price of A$0.4550 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ariadne Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$10.2M in FY2025 versus A$6.9M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.3M in FY2025, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$89.6M (≈ $63.1M) · P/E ratio 22.8 · P/S ratio 9.63 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0200 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 42.3% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 14%, ARA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3600Fair Value A$0.5200Bull A$0.5200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.7% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 57%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)44% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)50% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ariadne Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARA
Frequently asked questions
Is Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.5200 versus a price of A$0.4550, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARA?
Our model-based fair value for Ariadne Australia Ltd is A$0.5200 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.4550.
What is the quality score of ARA?
Ariadne Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.5200 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3600, optimistic scenario A$0.5200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ariadne Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.5200, about +14% upside versus a price of A$0.4550 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3600, optimistic scenario A$0.5200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Ariadne Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$9.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Ariadne Australia Ltd pay a dividend?
Ariadne Australia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ariadne Australia Ltd it is A$0.5200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.4550. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ariadne Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ARA trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.4550, fair value A$0.5200, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.4550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5200). For Ariadne Australia Ltd the two are A$0.0650 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ariadne Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Ariadne Australia Ltd at about A$89.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.4550; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARA?
Our models span a range for Ariadne Australia Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.3600, base A$0.5200, optimistic A$0.5200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.4550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARA?
Ariadne Australia Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.5200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ariadne Australia Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARA from its 52-week high?
Ariadne Australia Ltd trades at A$0.4550, about 16% below its 52-week high of A$0.5447 and 5% above the low of A$0.4350 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ariadne Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ariadne Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.4550, calculated fair value A$0.5200 (+14%), Quality Score 63/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARA calculated?
We run Ariadne Australia Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.5200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ariadne Australia Ltd currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.4550. Our model-based fair value is A$0.5200, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ariadne Australia Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Ariadne Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The market capitalisation of Ariadne Australia Ltd is A$89.6M (≈ $63.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ariadne Australia Ltd is 9.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Earnings per share at Ariadne Australia Ltd are A$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The dividend yield of Ariadne Australia Ltd is 2.2% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The net margin of Ariadne Australia Ltd is 42.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ariadne Australia Ltd is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ariadne Australia Ltd is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
The operating margin of Ariadne Australia Ltd is 49.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Revenue at Ariadne Australia Ltd is growing −4.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA)?
Earnings per share at Ariadne Australia Ltd are growing +2.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA) generate?
The free cash flow of Ariadne Australia Ltd is −A$7.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ariadne Australia Ltd (ARA) hold?
Ariadne Australia Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$12.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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