Avensia publ AB (AVEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Avensia publ AB SEK 16.33, price SEK 5.54, upside +194.8%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 5.40 – kr 15.05 · fair‑value band kr 12.25 – kr 36.05 · the kr 5.54 price screens below the kr 16.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Avensia AB (publ) provides e-commerce solutions in Sweden.
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Avensia AB (publ) provides e-commerce solutions in Sweden. The company offers e-commerce consulting, online marketplace strategy, digital transformation strategy and advisory, commerce consulting, and retail trends analysis services; UX and Web design services for digital transformation; loyalty program services; CRM solutions; product information management solutions that allows businesses to collect, enrich, and activate product data to ensure accuracy; master data management solutions It also provides e-commerce technology solutions, including Avensia Nitro, a packaged e-commerce platform; Avensia Excite, a modular e-commerce platform; B2B and D2C e-commerce solutions for businesses; online sales optimization; order management systems. In addition, the company offers omnichannel technology solution, such as in-store checkout and display solutions; and data and analytics, online sales optimization, and web experimentation services, as well as AI strategy consulting services for e-commerce. Further, it serves beauty and fashion, interior design, sports and outdoor, consumer goods, food and beverage, and construction sectors. The company was formerly known as InXL Innovation AB (publ) and changed its name to Avensia AB (publ) in June 2015. Avensia AB (publ) was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Lund, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Avensia publ AB (AVEN) currently trades at kr 5.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 16.33, implying the stock looks roughly 66.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 23.06 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 5.54 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 7.36, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 12.25 (bear) to kr 36.05 (bull), the price of kr 5.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avensia publ AB reported revenue of 423M SEK in FY2025 versus 390M SEK in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 21.7M SEK in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 264M SEK (≈ $26.6M) · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.4700 · Dividend yield 10.8% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 34.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at 195%, AVEN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 12.25Fair Value kr 16.33Bull kr 36.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 498 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+195% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)10.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avensia publ AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Avensia publ AB (AVEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 16.33 versus a price of kr 5.54, about +195% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVEN?
Our model-based fair value for Avensia publ AB is kr 16.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 5.54.
What is the quality score of AVEN?
Avensia publ AB has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 16.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 12.25, optimistic scenario kr 36.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avensia publ AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 16.33, about +195% upside versus a price of kr 5.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 12.25, optimistic scenario kr 36.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Avensia publ AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 411M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Avensia publ AB pay a dividend?
Avensia publ AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avensia publ AB would have to grow free cash flow by -19.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVEN use?
Our models discount Avensia publ AB at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avensia publ AB that is -19.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avensia publ AB (AVEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avensia publ AB grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -19.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avensia publ AB (AVEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avensia publ AB (-19.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.94 %: that much free cash flow Avensia publ AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avensia publ AB it is kr 16.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 5.54. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avensia publ AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AVEN trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 5.54, fair value kr 16.33, a gap of about +195% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 5.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 16.33). For Avensia publ AB the two are kr 10.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avensia publ AB worth?
The market values Avensia publ AB at about 264M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 5.54; our models calculate a fair value of kr 16.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVEN?
Our models span a range for Avensia publ AB: cautious scenario kr 12.25, base kr 16.33, optimistic kr 36.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 5.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVEN?
Avensia publ AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 16.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avensia publ AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 34.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVEN from its 52-week high?
Avensia publ AB trades at kr 5.54, about 37% below its 52-week high of kr 8.74 and at the low of kr 5.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 16.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avensia publ AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avensia publ AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 5.54, calculated fair value kr 16.33 (+195%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVEN calculated?
We run Avensia publ AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 16.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Avensia publ AB currently trades 195 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 5.54. Our model-based fair value is kr 16.33, about +195% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avensia publ AB right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 12.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (kr 12.25 to kr 36.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Avensia publ AB (AVEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Avensia publ AB grew −0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.4 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avensia publ AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The market capitalisation of Avensia publ AB is 264M SEK (≈ $26.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avensia publ AB is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Earnings per share at Avensia publ AB are kr 0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The dividend yield of Avensia publ AB is 10.8% (payout 128%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The net margin of Avensia publ AB is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avensia publ AB is 34.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avensia publ AB is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
The operating margin of Avensia publ AB is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Revenue at Avensia publ AB is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avensia publ AB (AVEN)?
Earnings per share at Avensia publ AB are growing −36.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Avensia publ AB (AVEN) carry?
The net debt of Avensia publ AB is 41.3M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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