Avio S.p.A (AVVSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Avio S.p.A $5.22, price $8.44, upside -38.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Avio S.p.A. designs, develops, produces, and integrates space launchers in Italy and internationally.
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Avio S.p.A. designs, develops, produces, and integrates space launchers in Italy and internationally. The company involved in the design, development, and production of solid and liquid propulsion systems for launchers; design, development, and production of solid propulsion systems for tactical missiles; development, integration, and supply of complete light space launchers; research and development of new environmentally friendly propulsion systems and attitude control engines for satellites; liquid propulsion systems for satellites; and ground infrastructure for launcher preparation and launch. Avio S.p.A. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Colleferro, Italy.
Stock analysis
Avio S.p.A (AVVSY) currently trades at $8.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.22, 38.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.22 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the $8.44 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.35, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avio S.p.A reported revenue of €584M in FY2025 versus €371M in FY2022, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was €10.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 84.4 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −38%, AVVSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.22Fair Value $5.22Bull $5.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)84.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.23× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.66× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF12.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA55.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)9· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avio S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVVSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Avio S.p.A (AVVSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.22 versus a price of $8.44, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVVSY?
Our model-based fair value for Avio S.p.A is $5.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.44.
What is the quality score of AVVSY?
Avio S.p.A has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avio S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.22, about −38% upside versus a price of $8.44 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Avio S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €584M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Avio S.p.A pay a dividend?
Avio S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avio S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVVSY use?
Our models discount Avio S.p.A at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avio S.p.A that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avio S.p.A (AVVSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Avio S.p.A grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avio S.p.A (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.15 %: that much free cash flow Avio S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avio S.p.A it is $5.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.44. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avio S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AVVSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.44, fair value $5.22, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVVSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.22). For Avio S.p.A the two are $3.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avio S.p.A worth?
The market values Avio S.p.A at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.44; our models calculate a fair value of $5.22 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of AVVSY?
Avio S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 84.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 55.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avio S.p.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Avio S.p.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avio S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.44, calculated fair value $5.22 (−38%), Quality Score 42/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVVSY calculated?
We run Avio S.p.A through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Avio S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.44. Our model-based fair value is $5.22, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avio S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Avio S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The market capitalisation of Avio S.p.A is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avio S.p.A is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Earnings per share at Avio S.p.A are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 84.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The dividend yield of Avio S.p.A is 0.4% (payout 34.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The net margin of Avio S.p.A is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avio S.p.A is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avio S.p.A is 0.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
The operating margin of Avio S.p.A is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Revenue at Avio S.p.A is growing +20.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avio S.p.A (AVVSY)?
Earnings per share at Avio S.p.A are growing −18.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026