Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Barings BDC Inc $17.52, price $8.66, upside +102.3%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.03 – $9.19 · fair‑value band $6.96 – $30.51 · the $8.66 price screens below the $17.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Barings BDC, Inc. is a publicly traded, externally managed investment company that has elected to be treated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
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Barings BDC, Inc. is a publicly traded, externally managed investment company that has elected to be treated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It seeks to invest primarily in senior secured loans, first lien debt, unitranche, second lien debt, subordinated debt, equity co-investments and senior secured private debt investments in private middle-market companies that operate across a wide range of industries. It specializes in mezzanine, leveraged buyouts, management buyouts, ESOPs, change of control transactions, acquisition financings, growth financing, and recapitalizations in lower middle market, mature, and later stage companies. It invests in manufacturing and distribution; business services and technology; transportation and logistics; consumer product and services. It invests in United States. It invests in companies with EBITDA of $10 million to $75 million, typically in private equity sponsor backed. The firm prefers to invest in companies having maximum revenue of $200 million and having EBITDA value between $10 million and $75 million.
Stock analysis
Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) currently trades at $8.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.52, implying the stock looks roughly 50.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $34.07 per share, and 11 of the 12 models we run sit above the $8.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.43, and 1 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.96 (bear) to $30.51 (bull), the price of $8.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Barings BDC Inc reported revenue of $249M in FY2025 versus $86.8M in FY2021, a compound +30.1%/yr. Reported net income was $102M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $907M · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 4.33 · EPS (TTM) $0.8200 · Dividend yield 12.0% · Net margin 41.0% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 102%, BBDC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.96Fair Value $17.52Bull $30.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’21
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.89% → 54%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.3% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)33% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)77% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)12.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.52 versus a price of $8.66, about +102% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BBDC?
Our model-based fair value for Barings BDC Inc is $17.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.66.
What is the quality score of BBDC?
Barings BDC Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.96, optimistic scenario $30.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Barings BDC Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.52, about +102% upside versus a price of $8.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.96, optimistic scenario $30.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Barings BDC Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $275M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Barings BDC Inc pay a dividend?
Barings BDC Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Barings BDC Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +70.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BBDC use?
Our models discount Barings BDC Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Barings BDC Inc that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Barings BDC Inc grew +70.7 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Barings BDC Inc (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.70 %: that much free cash flow Barings BDC Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Barings BDC Inc it is $17.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.66. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Barings BDC Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BBDC trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.66, fair value $17.52, a gap of about +102% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BBDC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.52). For Barings BDC Inc the two are $8.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Barings BDC Inc worth?
The market values Barings BDC Inc at about $907M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.66; our models calculate a fair value of $17.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBDC?
Our models span a range for Barings BDC Inc: cautious scenario $6.96, base $17.52, optimistic $30.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BBDC?
Barings BDC Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 0.8, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 28.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BBDC?
The PEG ratio of Barings BDC Inc is 3.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Barings BDC Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BBDC from its 52-week high?
Barings BDC Inc trades at $8.66, about 6% below its 52-week high of $9.19 and 16% above the low of $7.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Barings BDC Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Barings BDC Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.66, calculated fair value $17.52 (+102%), Quality Score 72/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BBDC calculated?
We run Barings BDC Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Barings BDC Inc currently trades 102 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.66. Our model-based fair value is $17.52, about +102% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Barings BDC Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide ($6.96 to $30.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) come from?
Earnings per share at Barings BDC Inc grew −0.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.1 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Barings BDC Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The market capitalisation of Barings BDC Inc is $907M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Barings BDC Inc is 4.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Earnings per share at Barings BDC Inc are $0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The dividend yield of Barings BDC Inc is 12.0% (payout 127%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The net margin of Barings BDC Inc is 41.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Barings BDC Inc is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Barings BDC Inc is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
The operating margin of Barings BDC Inc is 77.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Revenue at Barings BDC Inc is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +150%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Barings BDC Inc (BBDC)?
Earnings per share at Barings BDC Inc are growing −10.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) carry?
The net debt of Barings BDC Inc is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026