BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BSP Financial Group Ltd stock A$8.09, price A$7.62, upside +6.2%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.55 – A$8.61 · fair‑value band A$5.90 – A$10.11 · the A$7.62 price screens below the A$8.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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BSP Financial Group Limited provides commercial banking and financial services in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Cook Islands, Tonga, Samoa, Vanuatu, Cambodia, and Laos.
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It offers personal banking services, such as saving accounts and term deposits; personal, education, and personal asset loans; and life, health, and mortgage insurance products.
The company also provides business banking services, including business, solicitor's trust, and SME business current and deposit accounts; business overdrafts; insurance premium funding; and asset financing, bridging, tailored business, commercial property investment, residential property investment, construction development, seasonal finance, and SME business and package loans.
In addition, it offers international money transfer, foreign exchange, and trade finance services; foreign currency accounts, term deposits, and loans; and online business and mobile banking, payment, payroll, ATM, and bill pay services.
The company was formerly known as Bank of South Pacific Limited and changed its name to BSP Financial Group Limited in March 2021. BSP Financial Group Limited was founded in 1957 and is based in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Stock analysis
BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) currently trades at A$7.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$8.09, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$10.63 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$7.62 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.28, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$5.90 (bear) to A$10.11 (bull), the price of A$7.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BSP Financial Group Ltd reported revenue of 4.1B PGK in FY2025 versus 2.4B PGK in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B PGK in FY2025, compounding +3.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$3.6B (≈ $2.5B) Mid · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 2.59 · EPS (TTM) A$0.8900 · Dividend yield 7.9% · Net margin 30.2% · Return on equity 24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 6%, BFL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$5.90Fair Value A$8.09BullA$10.11
Price A$7.62 · Upside +6.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.7413 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.1% vs 9.0%, steady
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Compare BSP Financial Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1055 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)34.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BSP Financial Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BFL
Frequently asked questions
Is BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$8.09 versus a price of A$7.62, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BFL?
Our model-based fair value for BSP Financial Group Ltd is A$8.09 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$7.62.
What is the quality score of BFL?
BSP Financial Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$8.09 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.90, optimistic scenario A$10.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BSP Financial Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$8.09, about +6% upside versus a price of A$7.62 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$5.90, optimistic scenario A$10.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
BSP Financial Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B PGK (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does BSP Financial Group Ltd pay a dividend?
BSP Financial Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.90% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BSP Financial Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -24.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BFL use?
Our models discount BSP Financial Group Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BSP Financial Group Ltd that is -24.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BSP Financial Group Ltd grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies -24.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BSP Financial Group Ltd (-24.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.53 %: that much free cash flow BSP Financial Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BSP Financial Group Ltd it is A$8.09 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of A$7.62. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BSP Financial Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, BFL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$7.62, fair value A$8.09, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$7.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$8.09). For BSP Financial Group Ltd the two are A$0.4700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BSP Financial Group Ltd worth?
The market values BSP Financial Group Ltd at about A$3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is A$7.62; our models calculate a fair value of A$8.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BFL?
Our models span a range for BSP Financial Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.90, base A$8.09, optimistic A$10.11 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price A$7.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BFL?
BSP Financial Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$8.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for BSP Financial Group Ltd (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 24.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BFL from its 52-week high?
BSP Financial Group Ltd trades at A$7.62, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$8.61 and 4% above the low of A$7.31 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$8.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BSP Financial Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BSP Financial Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price A$7.62, calculated fair value A$8.09 (+6%), Quality Score 66/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BFL calculated?
We run BSP Financial Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$8.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. BSP Financial Group Ltd currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was A$7.62. Our model-based fair value is A$8.09, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BSP Financial Group Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) come from?
Earnings per share at BSP Financial Group Ltd grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.1 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BSP Financial Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The market capitalisation of BSP Financial Group Ltd is A$3.6B (≈ $2.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BSP Financial Group Ltd is 2.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
Earnings per share at BSP Financial Group Ltd are A$0.8900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The dividend yield of BSP Financial Group Ltd is 7.9% (payout 67.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The net margin of BSP Financial Group Ltd is 30.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BSP Financial Group Ltd is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BSP Financial Group Ltd is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
Revenue at BSP Financial Group Ltd is growing +17.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL)?
Earnings per share at BSP Financial Group Ltd are growing +8.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BSP Financial Group Ltd (BFL) hold?
BSP Financial Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.7B PGK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 30, 2026