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BMG Resources Ltd (BMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jun 23, 2026: fair value of BMG Resources Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.02, upside -10.0%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000BMG3

BR Thin data Sep 13, 2026

BMG Resources Ltd

BMG · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0180 · Overvalued (−10.0%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +32.5 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (4/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.0870 A$0.0060 Fair Value A$0.0180 Apr 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0060 – A$0.0870 · fair‑value band A$0.0180 – A$0.0200 · the A$0.0200 price screens above the A$0.0180 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

BMG Resources Limited, a mineral exploration company, engages in the exploration and development of mineral resource projects in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold and lithium deposits. Its flagship project is the Abercromby gold project located in the Agnew-Wiluna Greenstone Belt, Western Australia.

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BMG Resources Limited, a mineral exploration company, engages in the exploration and development of mineral resource projects in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold and lithium deposits. Its flagship project is the Abercromby gold project located in the Agnew-Wiluna Greenstone Belt, Western Australia. The company is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

BMG Resources Ltd (BMG) currently trades at A$0.0200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0180, 10.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0180 (bear) to A$0.0200 (bull), the price of A$0.0200 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

BMG Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$14.3K in FY2025 versus A$180 in FY2021, a compound +198.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$44.1M (≈ $30.7M) · Return on equity −6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.4% · Operating margin −4,442% · Revenue (TTM) A$7.1K · Revenue growth (YoY) +98.3% · Free cash flow −A$1.5M · Net cash A$345K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 233% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −10%, BMG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0180 Fair Value A$0.0180 Bull A$0.0200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−57.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +121.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−25,470.1% (2020) → −6,405.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BMG screens overvalued: fair value 10% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 434 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Below median
Fair Value upside −10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −3.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 98.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.00× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)20 · sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 61
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 61.10 SAR 67.21 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.08 ¥19.15 +12%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹588.95 ₹647.85 +10%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥57.18 ¥29.56 −48%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Boliden AB BOL kr 521.00 kr 464.45 −11%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥35.19 ¥38.71 +10%
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$12.06 C$4.46 −63%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥46.90 ¥23.62 −50%
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹266.35 ₹655.92 +146%

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A$0.0180 −10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BMG Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMG

Frequently asked questions

Is BMG Resources Ltd (BMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0180 versus the last price from Jun 23, 2026 of A$0.0200, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMG?
Our model-based fair value for BMG Resources Ltd is A$0.0180 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 23, 2026): A$0.0200.
What is the quality score of BMG?
BMG Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0180 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0180, optimistic scenario A$0.0200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BMG Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0180, about −10% upside versus the last price from Jun 23, 2026 of A$0.0200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0180, optimistic scenario A$0.0200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
BMG Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$7.1K (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BMG Resources Ltd it is A$0.0180 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.0200. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BMG Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, BMG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0200, fair value A$0.0180, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0180). For BMG Resources Ltd the two are A$0.0020 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BMG Resources Ltd worth?
The market values BMG Resources Ltd at about A$44.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0180 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMG?
Our models span a range for BMG Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0180, base A$0.0180, optimistic A$0.0200 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$0.0200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BMG Resources Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −6.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMG from its 52-week high?
BMG Resources Ltd trades at A$0.0200, about 52% below its 52-week high of A$0.0420 and 233% above the low of A$0.0060 (as of Jun 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0180 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BMG Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BMG Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.0200, calculated fair value A$0.0180 (−10%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMG calculated?
We run BMG Resources Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0180, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BMG Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 23, 2026 and stands at A$0.0200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0180, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BMG Resources Ltd right now?
The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0180 to A$0.0200), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of BMG Resources Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
The market capitalisation of BMG Resources Ltd is A$44.1M (≈ $30.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BMG Resources Ltd is −6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BMG Resources Ltd is −8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
The operating margin of BMG Resources Ltd is −4,442% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BMG Resources Ltd (BMG)?
Revenue at BMG Resources Ltd is growing +98.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −57.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does BMG Resources Ltd (BMG) generate?
The free cash flow of BMG Resources Ltd is −A$1.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does BMG Resources Ltd (BMG) hold?
BMG Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$345K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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