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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company MXN 285, price MXN 819, upside -65.2%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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BP
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company
BPN · MXStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 285.21 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−65.2%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 358.93 MXN – 845.83 MXN · fair‑value band 265.33 MXN – 314.68 MXN · the 819.00 MXN price screens above the 285.21 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.
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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BPN) currently trades at 819.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 285.21 MXN, 65.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1,225 MXN per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the 819.00 MXN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 232.47 MXN, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 265.33 MXN (bear) to 314.68 MXN (bull), the price of 819.00 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported revenue of $189B in FY2025 versus $158B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was $55.0M in FY2025, compounding −70.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.9T MXN (≈ $103B) · P/E ratio 37.9 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) 21.62 MXN · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −65%, BPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 265.33 MXN
Fair Value 285.21 MXN
Bull 314.68 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (16.10 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
820.24 MXN
1,192 MXN
1,881 MXN
79
Growth DCF
864.34 MXN
1,225 MXN
1,843 MXN
78
Residual Income
250.36 MXN
232.47 MXN
219.37 MXN
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
820.24 MXN
1,192 MXN
1,881 MXN
79
Owner Earnings
367.22 MXN
561.33 MXN
920.85 MXN
75
5Y Revenue Exit
809.06 MXN
1,252 MXN
1,896 MXN
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
798.71 MXN
1,234 MXN
1,811 MXN
75
5Y P/E Exit
239.88 MXN
266.62 MXN
302.20 MXN
72
10Y Revenue Exit
779.35 MXN
1,110 MXN
1,466 MXN
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
799.74 MXN
1,099 MXN
1,416 MXN
69
10Y P/E Exit
460.53 MXN
500.80 MXN
530.29 MXN
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
2.64 MXN
3.22 MXN
3.62 MXN
67
EPV
403.26 MXN
491.66 MXN
569.01 MXN
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
327.30 MXN
358.25 MXN
405.41 MXN
69
DDM Multi-Stage
327.30 MXN
410.65 MXN
527.48 MXN
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
4.07 MXN
5.43 MXN
6.78 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
4.94 MXN
6.59 MXN
8.24 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
4.94 MXN
6.59 MXN
8.24 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
708.25 MXN
986.71 MXN
1,265 MXN
66
EV/EBITDA
939.19 MXN
1,295 MXN
1,650 MXN
67
EV/Revenue
886.47 MXN
1,321 MXN
1,755 MXN
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
186.91 MXN
250.46 MXN
373.82 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
864.34 MXN
1,225 MXN
1,843 MXN
78
Rev-Margin DCF
809.06 MXN
1,274 MXN
1,843 MXN
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
250.36 MXN
232.47 MXN
219.37 MXN
76
ROIC Compounder
403.26 MXN
506.34 MXN
620.09 MXN
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
2.93 MXN
4.18 MXN
5.44 MXN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−58.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.7% a year for the price and −4.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−7.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)−6.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−5.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)−3.8%
BPN screens overvalued: fair value 65% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR | $20.37 | $28.71 | +41% |
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| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.28 | ¥3.74 | −29% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | $67.87 | $70.17 | +3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 285.21 MXN versus a price of 819.00 MXN, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPN?
Our model-based fair value for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 285.21 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 819.00 MXN.
What is the quality score of BPN?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 285.21 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 265.33 MXN, optimistic scenario 314.68 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 285.21 MXN, about −65% upside versus a price of 819.00 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 265.33 MXN, optimistic scenario 314.68 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, pay a dividend?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, would have to grow free cash flow by +36.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPN use?
Our models discount BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, that is +36.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +36.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (+36.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.63 %: that much free cash flow BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, it is 285.21 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 819.00 MXN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BPN trades above its calculated fair value: price 819.00 MXN, fair value 285.21 MXN, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (819.00 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (285.21 MXN). For BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, the two are 533.79 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, worth?
The market values BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, at about 1.9T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 819.00 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 285.21 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPN?
Our models span a range for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,: cautious scenario 265.33 MXN, base 285.21 MXN, optimistic 314.68 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 819.00 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is BPN from its 52-week high?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, trades at 819.00 MXN, about 3% below its 52-week high of 845.83 MXN and 39% above the low of 588.43 MXN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 285.21 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 819.00 MXN, calculated fair value 285.21 MXN (−65%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPN calculated?
We run BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 285.21 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 819.00 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 285.21 MXN, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (314.68 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,
How large is the market capitalisation of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The market capitalisation of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 1.9T MXN (≈ $103B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 37.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
Earnings per share at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, are 21.62 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The dividend yield of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 0.0% (payout 1.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The net margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
The operating margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
Revenue at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN)?
Earnings per share at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, are growing +475% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (BPN) carry?
The net debt of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is $21.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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