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Data-driven stock valuation

Chevron Corp (CVX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Chevron Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · US · Market cap $351B · ISIN US1667641005

At a glance

CC Chevron Corp logo Chevron Corp CVX · US
Price$208.60
Fair Value$90.66
Upside−56.5%
Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 130% above our fair value of $90.66.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Chevron Corp is $90.66 per share against a price of $208.60, so the fair value sits 57% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.31% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Weak on future: 12 out of 100
!Weak on past: 27 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $64.84 to $118.38

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price +11.9% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($64.84 to $118.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$211.78 $77.84 Fair Value $90.66 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $77.84 – $211.78 · fair‑value band $64.84 – $118.38 · the $208.60 price screens above the $90.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Chevron Corp (CVX) currently trades at $208.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.66, implying the stock looks roughly 130.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $98.70 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $208.60 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $39.23, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chevron Corp generated revenue of $186B at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at $40.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $64.84 (bear) to $118.38 (bull), the price of $208.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −57%, CVX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $74.23 $112.51 $174.29 77
Growth DCF $77.82 $114.71 $171.36 76
EPV $30.88 $39.23 $46.64 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $74.23 $112.51 $174.29 77
Owner Earnings $65.99 $100.79 $156.96 73
5Y Revenue Exit $61.54 $97.35 $143.35 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $62.40 $98.84 $141.19 72
5Y P/E Exit $52.15 $81.06 $111.07 69
10Y Revenue Exit $63.17 $96.07 $134.76 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $65.94 $97.08 $133.22 66
10Y P/E Exit $59.45 $84.95 $111.70 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $41.99 $82.60 $103.48 64
EPV $30.88 $39.23 $46.64 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $61.58 $88.64 $117.49 67
DDM Multi-Stage $61.58 $87.84 $119.78 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $64.84 $86.46 $108.07 63
P/S Multiple $78.74 $104.98 $131.23 58
P/B Multiple $78.74 $104.98 $131.23 55
EV/EBIT $46.39 $67.33 $88.26 65
EV/EBITDA $66.77 $94.49 $122.21 67
EV/Revenue $59.79 $92.44 $125.09 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $46.81 $62.72 $93.62 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $77.82 $114.71 $171.36 76
Rev-Margin DCF $61.54 $98.70 $139.91 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $77.00 $81.38 $86.70 74
ROIC Compounder $30.88 $39.23 $46.64 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $47.92 $68.45 $88.99 65

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($98.70) versus Earnings-Based ($39.23). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 35.8
P/S ratio 2.39 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $5.82 price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.8
Dividend yield 3.3% payout 119%
Net margin 6.7% FY2025
Return on equity 6.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 7.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $186B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.3% 3y avg −9.2%
EPS growth (YoY) −44.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $16.6B FY2025
Net debt $40.3B FY2025 · ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments.

Full company description

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. Its Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The All Other segment engages in cash management and debt financing; insurance; real estate; and technology activities. It has operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chevron Corp reported revenue of $184B in FY2025 versus $156B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $12.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$184B
Latest YoY
−4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (33Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+6.5%
Dividend yield3.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 6.5% vs 10Y 0.5%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7.3% (2020) → 9.0% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop138% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +4.3%/yr
FY21 $156B
FY22 $246B
FY23 $197B
FY24 $193B
FY25 $184B
Net income −5.8%/yr
FY21 $15.6B
FY22 $35.5B
FY23 $21.4B
FY24 $17.7B
FY25 $12.3B

CVX screens 130% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →

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Chevron Corp · Fair Value
$90.66 −130%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chevron Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CVX

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 35.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.89× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 21.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.74× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Chevron Corp deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+6.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+14.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price4.29 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.6 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 5
FUTURE12 · sector 12
PAST27 · sector 43
HEALTH90 · sector 86
DIVIDEND66 · sector 75

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $159.47 $88.98 −44%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.17 ¥15.47 +38%
Shell plc SHELL €40.28 €39.46 −2%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA €7.74 €2.06 −73%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.52 ¥4.59 −17%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.51 $94.61 −28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chevron Corp (CVX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $90.66 versus a price of $208.60, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CVX?
Our model-based fair value for Chevron Corp is $90.66 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $208.60.
What is the quality score of CVX?
Chevron Corp has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chevron Corp (CVX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $90.66 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $64.84, optimistic scenario $118.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chevron Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $90.66, about −57% upside versus a price of $208.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $64.84, optimistic scenario $118.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chevron Corp (CVX)?
Chevron Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $186B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CVX?
The net profit margin of Chevron Corp is about 5.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chevron Corp pay a dividend?
Chevron Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chevron Corp (CVX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chevron Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +6.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CVX use?
Our models discount Chevron Corp at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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