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Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Barry Callebaut AG $7.84, price $12.72, upside -38.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Barry Callebaut AG
BRRLY · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $7.84 · Strongly overvalued (−38.4%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!2.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 34/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.63 – $25.39 · fair‑value band $4.77 – $10.65 · the $12.72 price screens above the $7.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa.
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Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa. It offers chocolates, chips and chunks, cocoa, cacao fruit, fillings, coatings, nuts, decorations and inclusions, and food colorants, as well as beverage products for vending machines. The company is also involved in the sourcing of ingredients for chocolate production and cocoa-processing business. In addition, it provides centralized treasury and management services, captive reinsurance, research and development services, and conference and training services through CHOCOLATE ACADEMY centers. The company markets its products under the American Almond, Barry Callebaut, Cacao Barry, Cacaofruit, Callebaut, Caprimo, Carma, Dings Décor, Gertrude Hawk Ingredients, Mona Lisa, Van Houten, and Van Leer Chocolates brands. It serves food manufacturers and artisans, as well as professional users of chocolate, including chocolatiers, pastry chefs, and bakers. Barry Callebaut AG was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY) currently trades at $12.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.84, 38.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.35 per share, and 4 of the 17 models we run sit above the $12.72 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.18, and 13 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.77 (bear) to $10.65 (bull), the price of $12.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Barry Callebaut AG reported revenue of CHF 14.8B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.2B in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 186M in FY2025, compounding −16.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.6B · P/E ratio 22.7 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.5600 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −38%, BRRLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.77
Fair Value $7.84
Bull $10.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$4.67
$4.93
$5.38
76
EPV
$6.16
$7.94
$9.49
74
Owner Earnings
$6.59
$13.35
$23.56
73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$6.59
$13.35
$23.56
73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.78
$9.62
$12.92
64
Lynch FV
$2.23
$3.18
$4.13
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.23
$3.18
$4.13
57
EPV
$6.16
$7.94
$9.49
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.08
$6.13
$9.28
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.08
$5.25
$6.47
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.44
$8.59
$10.74
63
P/S Multiple
$5.22
$6.96
$8.70
58
P/B Multiple
$5.22
$6.96
$8.70
55
EV/EBIT
$12.67
$18.61
$24.56
65
EV/EBITDA
$13.74
$20.04
$26.34
67
EV/Revenue
$7.57
$13.02
$18.47
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.89
$3.87
$5.77
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.67
$4.93
$5.38
76
ROIC Compounder
$6.28
$9.25
$13.07
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.53
$7.90
$10.27
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.9% vs −2.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
BRRLY screens overvalued: fair value 38% below the price. Compare with Mondelez International, Inc →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Barry Callebaut (SWX:BARN) Tests Its Recovery Story On A Near Fair Value View
- Barry Callebaut Unveils Two New Innovations, Delivering a Portfolio for All Tastes and All Moments at Sweets & Snacks Expo 2026
- Barry Callebaut's (VTX:BARN) Solid Earnings Are Supported By Other Strong Factors
- Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Barry Callebaut AG (VTX:BARN) Price Target To CHF1,328
Compare Barry Callebaut AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $57.82 | $29.03 | −50% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $161.41 | $90.80 | −44% |
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISP | CHF 7,540 | CHF 11,708 | +55% |
| Cofco Sugar Holding 600737 | ¥14.75 | ¥10.01 | −32% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 106,900 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +90% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $21.64 | −45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.76 | ¥8.53 | −55% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹649.05 | ₹160.97 | −75% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 23,000 KRW | 51,062 KRW | +122% |
| Guan Chong Berhad, 5102 | 1.29 MYR | 2.54 MYR | +97% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.84 versus a price of $12.72, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BRRLY?
Our model-based fair value for Barry Callebaut AG is $7.84 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.72.
What is the quality score of BRRLY?
Barry Callebaut AG has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.84 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.77, optimistic scenario $10.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Barry Callebaut AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.84, about −38% upside versus a price of $12.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.77, optimistic scenario $10.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Barry Callebaut AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 14.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Barry Callebaut AG pay a dividend?
Barry Callebaut AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.56% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Barry Callebaut AG it is $7.84 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $12.72. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Barry Callebaut AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, BRRLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.72, fair value $7.84, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BRRLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.84). For Barry Callebaut AG the two are $4.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Barry Callebaut AG worth?
The market values Barry Callebaut AG at about $7.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $12.72; our models calculate a fair value of $7.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BRRLY?
Our models span a range for Barry Callebaut AG: cautious scenario $4.77, base $7.84, optimistic $10.65 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $12.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BRRLY?
Barry Callebaut AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BRRLY?
The PEG ratio of Barry Callebaut AG is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Barry Callebaut AG (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 1.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BRRLY from its 52-week high?
Barry Callebaut AG trades at $12.72, about 35% below its 52-week high of $19.69 and 4% above the low of $12.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Barry Callebaut AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Cofco Sugar Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Barry Callebaut AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $12.72, calculated fair value $7.84 (−38%), Quality Score 47/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BRRLY calculated?
We run Barry Callebaut AG through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Barry Callebaut AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.72. Our model-based fair value is $7.84, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Barry Callebaut AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($4.77 to $10.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Barry Callebaut AG grew +1.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Barry Callebaut AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The market capitalisation of Barry Callebaut AG is $7.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Barry Callebaut AG is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Earnings per share at Barry Callebaut AG are $0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The dividend yield of Barry Callebaut AG is 2.6% (payout 58.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The net margin of Barry Callebaut AG is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Barry Callebaut AG is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Barry Callebaut AG is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
The operating margin of Barry Callebaut AG is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Revenue at Barry Callebaut AG is growing −7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY)?
Earnings per share at Barry Callebaut AG are growing +179% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Barry Callebaut AG is −CHF 337M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Barry Callebaut AG (BRRLY) carry?
The net debt of Barry Callebaut AG is CHF 4.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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