The Hershey Company (HSY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $34.8B
The Hershey Company
HSY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $91.16 to $164.25 (+80.2%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $117.86 (bear) to $205.33 (bull), base $164.25. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $138.17 – $252.37 · fair‑value band $117.86 – $205.33 · the $183.02 price screens above the $164.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
The Hershey Company (HSY) currently trades at $183.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $164.25, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Hershey Company generated revenue of $12.0B at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.2%. Net debt stands at $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $117.86 (bear case) to $205.33 (bull case); at $183.02, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -10%, HSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($87.43) versus Asset-Based ($15.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International.
Full company description
The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. The company offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; protein bars; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, bars, snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and pretzels. It provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Sour Strips, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. The company markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. It exports its products in approximately 65 countries worldwide. The Hershey Company was founded in 1894 and is based in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Hershey Company reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $883M in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
HSY screens 10% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Hershey (HSY) A Bargain After Raised Outlook And Volume Weakness?
- HSY Q2 Deep Dive: Supply Chain Progress and Innovation Offset Commodity Volatility
- Hershey Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Hershey (HSY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Peer Group
Confectioners · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.50 | $21.81 | -45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,150 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +68% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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