Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CH · Market cap CHF 105B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from CHF 10,071 to CHF 9,874 (−2.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 15,827). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (CHF 5,331 to CHF 15,827). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 82,690 – CHF 132,532 · fair‑value band CHF 5,331 – CHF 15,827 · the CHF 96,900 price screens above the CHF 9,874 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISN) currently trades at CHF 96,900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 9,874, implying the stock looks roughly 89.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG generated revenue of CHF 6.0B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at CHF 1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 5,331 (bear case) to CHF 15,827 (bull case); at CHF 96,900, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -90%, LISN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (CHF 12,225) versus Asset-Based (CHF 3,063). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Küfferle, and Pangburn's, Gold Bunny, and Lindor brands.
Full company description
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Küfferle, and Pangburn's, Gold Bunny, and Lindor brands. It serves customers through a network of distributors, as well as through own stores. The company was founded in 1845 and is headquartered in Kilchberg, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG reported revenue of CHF 5.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 4.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 727M in FY2025, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2021.
LISN screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Mondelez International, Inc →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.50 | $21.81 | -45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,150 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +68% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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