Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc $22.28, price $39.00, upside -42.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Tootsie Roll Industries Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.79 – $48.10 · fair‑value band $15.60 – $27.52 · the $39.00 price screens above the $22.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Tootsie Roll Industries in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Tootsie Roll Industries is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells confectionery products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.
Show more
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells confectionery products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company sells its products under the Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Fruit Roll, Tootsie Pops, Tootsie Mini Pops, Child's Play, Caramel Apple Pops, Charms, Blow-Pop, Charms Mini Pops, Cella's, Dots, Junior Mints, Charleston Chew, Sugar Daddy, Sugar Babies, Andes, Fluffy Stuff, Dubble Bubble, Razzles, Cry Baby, Nik-L-Nip, And Tutsi Pop trademarks. It sells its products directly to wholesale distributors of candy, food and groceries, supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, chain grocers, drug chains, discount chains, cooperative grocery associations, mass merchandisers, warehouse and membership club stores, vending machine operators, e-commerce merchants, on-line marketplaces, the U.S. military and fund-raising charitable organizations, as well as through food and grocery brokers. Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) currently trades at $39.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.28, implying the stock looks roughly 75.0% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.41 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $39.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.35, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.60 (bear) to $27.52 (bull), the price of $39.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc reported revenue of $733M in FY2025 versus $571M in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B · P/E ratio 29.7 · P/S ratio 4.06 · EPS (TTM) $1.33 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −43%, TROLB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.60Fair Value $22.28Bull $27.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7194 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.6% a year for the price.
Compare Tootsie Roll Industries Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.7× · Pricier than median
P/B3.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.87× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF29.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)11· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tootsie Roll Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TROLB
Frequently asked questions
Is Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.28 versus a price of $39.00, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TROLB?
Our model-based fair value for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is $22.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.00.
What is the quality score of TROLB?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.60, optimistic scenario $27.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tootsie Roll Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.28, about −43% upside versus a price of $39.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.60, optimistic scenario $27.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $736M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tootsie Roll Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TROLB use?
Our models discount Tootsie Roll Industries Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tootsie Roll Industries Inc that is +12.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (+12.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.39 %: that much free cash flow Tootsie Roll Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tootsie Roll Industries Inc it is $22.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $39.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tootsie Roll Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TROLB trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.00, fair value $22.28, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TROLB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.28). For Tootsie Roll Industries Inc the two are $16.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tootsie Roll Industries Inc worth?
The market values Tootsie Roll Industries Inc at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $39.00; our models calculate a fair value of $22.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TROLB?
Our models span a range for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc: cautious scenario $15.60, base $22.28, optimistic $27.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $39.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TROLB?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 20.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Tootsie Roll Industries Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tootsie Roll Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $39.00, calculated fair value $22.28 (−43%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TROLB calculated?
We run Tootsie Roll Industries Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Tootsie Roll Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $39.00. Our model-based fair value is $22.28, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tootsie Roll Industries Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) come from?
Earnings per share at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The market capitalisation of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is 4.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Earnings per share at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc are $1.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The dividend yield of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is 0.9% (payout 26.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The net margin of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
The operating margin of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Revenue at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB)?
Earnings per share at Tootsie Roll Industries Inc are growing −2.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TROLB) hold?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc holds more cash than debt, $114M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Tootsie Roll Industries Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Tootsie Roll Industries Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026