Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TROLB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $3.0B
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc
TROLB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $51.08 to $21.81 (−57.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($15.27 to $28.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.79 – $48.10 · fair‑value band $15.27 – $28.28 · the $39.00 price screens above the $21.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TROLB) currently trades at $39.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.81, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc generated revenue of $736M at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $114M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.27 (bear case) to $28.28 (bull case); at $39.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -44%, TROLB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($22.41) versus Dividend Discount ($4.35). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells confectionery products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.
Full company description
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells confectionery products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company sells its products under the Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Fruit Roll, Tootsie Pops, Tootsie Mini Pops, Child's Play, Caramel Apple Pops, Charms, Blow-Pop, Charms Mini Pops, Cella's, Dots, Junior Mints, Charleston Chew, Sugar Daddy, Sugar Babies, Andes, Fluffy Stuff, Dubble Bubble, Razzles, Cry Baby, Nik-L-Nip, And Tutsi Pop trademarks. It sells its products directly to wholesale distributors of candy, food and groceries, supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, chain grocers, drug chains, discount chains, cooperative grocery associations, mass merchandisers, warehouse and membership club stores, vending machine operators, e-commerce merchants, on-line marketplaces, the U.S. military and fund-raising charitable organizations, as well as through food and grocery brokers. Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc reported revenue of $733M in FY2025 versus $571M in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2021.
TROLB screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,150 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +68% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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