Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mondelez International Inc stock $46.95, price $66.82, that is 29.7% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.01 – $70.84 · fair‑value band $31.58 – $71.61 · the $66.82 price screens above the $46.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
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The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products.
Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate.
It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents.
The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms.
Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) currently trades at $66.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.95, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.92 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $66.82 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $15.83, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $31.58 (bear) to $71.61 (bull), the price of $66.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mondelez International Inc reported revenue of $38.5B in FY2025 versus $28.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $86.3B Large · P/E ratio 21.1 · P/S ratio 2.16 · EPS (TTM) $3.17 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −30%, MDLZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$31.58Fair Value $46.95Bull$71.61
Price $66.82 · Downside -29.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9767 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$20.61$34.00$62.0277
Growth DCF$22.19$35.51$61.1976
Residual Income$18.37$20.34$24.9676
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$20.61$34.00$62.0277
Owner Earnings$5.87$13.19$28.5170
5Y Revenue Exit$15.11$26.77$43.9871
5Y EBITDA Exit$20.99$36.77$57.9673
5Y P/E Exit$16.58$29.27$44.6569
10Y Revenue Exit$16.03$26.84$39.1366
10Y EBITDA Exit$20.57$33.73$48.6668
10Y P/E Exit$17.74$28.56$39.5864
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$13.17$22.15$26.9667
EPV$11.49$15.83$19.7673
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$19.69$25.03$30.8769
DDM Multi-Stage$19.69$27.38$37.6267
Multiples
P/E Multiple$30.50$40.66$50.8363
P/S Multiple$24.69$32.92$41.1558
EV/EBIT$20.44$32.60$44.7564
EV/EBITDA$22.32$35.10$47.8866
EV/Revenue$10.00$21.16$32.3151
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$22.19$35.51$61.1976
Rev-Margin DCF$15.11$27.32$42.8371
Economic Profit
Residual Income$18.37$20.34$24.9676
ROIC Compounder$11.49$15.83$19.7672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$21.53$30.76$39.9967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
SaleGustavo Carlos ValleEVP and President, NA3,000 shares at $62.00$186,000Feb 13, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.9% vs 4.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.1% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate brand and distribution strengths underpin volume-led growth, yet limited durability signals and core pricing sensitivity constrain lasting resilience.
Main risk: Private-label offerings from retailers could erode Mondelez market share or force price reductions on branded confectionery and snacks.
Bull case: Mondelez could leverage its brand extensions and digital tools to defend share against private labels while adapting packaging to meet regulations efficiently.
Bear case: If private-label pressure and packaging rules intensify alongside debt costs, Mondelez might face sustained margin compression and slower volume growth in key markets.
Mondelez posted volume-led organic growth in Q3 as cocoa costs fell and productivity gains lifted margins and adjusted earnings above estimates. The company simultaneously took a majority stake in Undercover Snacks to build its presence in permissible indulgence products aimed at health-conscious consumers. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the newer category generate enough incremental growth to offset pricing sensitivity in the core confectionery business?
Compare Mondelez International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.1× · Pricier than median
P/B3.34× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.16× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow26.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.96× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)12· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)62· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)60· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mondelez International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDLZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.95 versus a price of $66.82, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDLZ?
Our model-based fair value for Mondelez International Inc is $46.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.82.
What is the quality score of MDLZ?
Mondelez International Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.58, optimistic scenario $71.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mondelez International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.95, about 30% lower versus a price of $66.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $31.58, optimistic scenario $71.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Mondelez International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Mondelez International Inc pay a dividend?
Mondelez International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mondelez International Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDLZ use?
Our models discount Mondelez International Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mondelez International Inc that is +13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mondelez International Inc grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mondelez International Inc (+13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.75 %: that much free cash flow Mondelez International Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mondelez International Inc it is $46.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $66.82. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mondelez International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MDLZ trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.82, fair value $46.95, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDLZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.95). For Mondelez International Inc the two are $19.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mondelez International Inc worth?
The market values Mondelez International Inc at about $86.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $66.82; our models calculate a fair value of $46.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDLZ?
Our models span a range for Mondelez International Inc: cautious scenario $31.58, base $46.95, optimistic $71.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $66.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDLZ?
Mondelez International Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $46.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 3.3, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MDLZ?
The PEG ratio of Mondelez International Inc is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mondelez International Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDLZ from its 52-week high?
Mondelez International Inc trades at $66.82, about 1% below its 52-week high of $67.38 and 33% above the low of $50.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $46.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mondelez International Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, Cofco Sugar Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mondelez International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $66.82, calculated fair value $46.95 (−30%), Quality Score 60/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDLZ calculated?
We run Mondelez International Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $46.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Mondelez International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $66.82. Our model-based fair value is $46.95, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mondelez International Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($31.58 to $71.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Mondelez International Inc grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mondelez International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The market capitalisation of Mondelez International Inc is $86.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mondelez International Inc is 2.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Earnings per share at Mondelez International Inc are $3.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The dividend yield of Mondelez International Inc is 3.0% (payout 63.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The net margin of Mondelez International Inc is 10.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mondelez International Inc is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mondelez International Inc is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
The operating margin of Mondelez International Inc is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Revenue at Mondelez International Inc is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)?
Earnings per share at Mondelez International Inc are growing +78.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) carry?
The net debt of Mondelez International Inc is $20.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026