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Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited $0.03, price $0.03, upside -7.2%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited
CMGHF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $0.0252 · Fairly valued (−7.2%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -29.7% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0042 – $1.56 · fair‑value band $0.0225 – $0.0252 · the $0.0272 price screens above the $0.0252 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in growing and selling agricultural products in Hong Kong.
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Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in growing and selling agricultural products in Hong Kong. The company offers fruits and vegetables, including white cauliflower, cherry tomato, cabbage, mini cucumber, purple cabbage, netted melon, tangerine, broccoli, lettuce, gourd, sweet pepper, sweet corn, choi sum, Chinese cabbage, and pumpkin. It also breeds and sells livestock. In addition, the company involved in the provision of agency services; distribution and trading of crops; wholesale and logistics of vegetables and fruits; and property holding activities. Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF) currently trades at $0.0272, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0252, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.8%).
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 90/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0225 (bear) to $0.0252 (bull), the price of $0.0272 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of 63.4M CNY in FY2025 versus 73.6M CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was −14.6M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $22.2M · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −23.1% · Return on equity −9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% · Operating margin −32.6% · Revenue (TTM) 61.0M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −7%, CMGHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0225
Fair Value $0.0252
Bull $0.0252
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Profitability
6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −26.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.7%
’14
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−36.9% (2020) → −22.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM | $80.38 | $38.02 | −53% |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.48 | ¥115.35 | +185% |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $108.14 | $56.75 | −48% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $50.98 | $37.06 | −27% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | −17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 205.60 | kr 280.90 | +37% |
| SalMar ASA SALM | kr 580.50 | kr 171.05 | −71% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 21.80 THB | 55.71 THB | +156% |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 32.58 MYR | 35.84 MYR | +10% |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥155.26 | ¥254.63 | +64% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0252 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0272, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CMGHF?
Our model-based fair value for Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is $0.0252 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.0272.
What is the quality score of CMGHF?
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0252 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0225, optimistic scenario $0.0252. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0252, about −7% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0272 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.0225, optimistic scenario $0.0252. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 61.0M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited it is $0.0252 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0272. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMGHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0272, fair value $0.0252, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMGHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0272); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0252). For Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited the two are $0.0020 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited worth?
The market values Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited at about $22.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0272; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0252 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMGHF?
Our models span a range for Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited: cautious scenario $0.0225, base $0.0252, optimistic $0.0252 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0272). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMGHF from its 52-week high?
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited trades at $0.0272, about 42% below its 52-week high of $0.0471 and 172% above the low of $0.0100 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0252 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0272, calculated fair value $0.0252 (−7%), Quality Score 51/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMGHF calculated?
We run Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0252, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.0272. Our model-based fair value is $0.0252, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0252). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The models converge in a tight band ($0.0225 to $0.0252), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
The market capitalisation of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is $22.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is 0.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
Earnings per share at Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
The net margin of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is −23.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is −6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
The operating margin of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is −32.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF)?
Revenue at Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is growing −7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF) generate?
The free cash flow of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is −607K CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (CMGHF) hold?
Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited holds more cash than debt, 80.2M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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