Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $39.7B

A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($61.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $40.10 – $87.44 · fair‑value band $36.90 – $61.50 · the $77.51 price screens above the $49.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) currently trades at $77.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.20, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company generated revenue of $80.6B at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at $7.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $36.90 (bear case) to $61.50 (bull case); at $77.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -37%, ADM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($67.18) versus Earnings-Based ($14.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition.

Full company description

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company reported revenue of $80.3B in FY2025 versus $85.2B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −20.6%/yr from FY2021.

ADM screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Is Up 0.02% in One Week: What You Should Know Yahoo Finance · Jul 31, 2026
• ADM to Expand North America Crush Capacity Amid Strong Biofuel Demand Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026

Peer Group

Farm Products · 293 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 54/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.