Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company stock $60.78, price $70.84, that is 14.2% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM · USOur calculation puts a fair price 14% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.85 – $88.09 · fair‑value band $45.59 – $75.97 · the $70.84 price screens above the $60.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Company profile
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition.
The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp.
It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives.
In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems.
Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) currently trades at $70.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $60.78, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $80.10 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $70.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $17.21, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $45.59 (bear) to $75.97 (bull), the price of $70.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company reported revenue of $80.3B in FY2025 versus $85.2B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −20.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $34.4B Large · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) $5.12 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −14%, ADM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 25 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
- SaleIan R PinnerSenior Vice President34,106 shares at $71.53$2.4MMar 13, 2026
- SaleChristopher M CuddySenior Vice President35,000 shares at $73.50$2.6MMar 13, 2026
- SaleGregory A MorrisSenior Vice President50,000 shares at $68.48$3.4MMar 10, 2026
- SaleJennifer L WeberSenior Vice President25,000 shares at $67.04$1.7MFeb 17, 2026
- BuyDavid R McAtee IIDirector7,500 shares at $64.90$486,750Feb 5, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 4, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
ADM screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Recent news
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings
- ADM: Q3 Earnings Snapshot
- ADM Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
- ADM Opens New Destination Marketing Office in Nairobi, Strengthening Presence Across East Africa
Compare Archer-Daniels-Midland Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 286 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- P/B ratio by industry
- Net margin by industry
- PEG screener for stocks with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 20.40 THB | 43.40 THB | +113% | vs ADM |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $60.03 | $73.24 | +22% | vs ADM |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 219.40 | kr 266.51 | +21% | vs ADM |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥43.75 | ¥53.02 | +21% | vs ADM |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 30.10 MYR | 32.14 MYR | +7% | vs ADM |
| L.D.C. S.A LOUP | €109.40 | €108.06 | −1% | vs ADM |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥16.69 | ¥12.08 | −28% | vs ADM |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥139.01 | ¥88.62 | −36% | vs ADM |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $97.01 | $56.81 | −41% | vs ADM |
| SalMar ASA SALM | kr 582.50 | kr 260.08 | −55% | vs ADM |
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Key figures of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
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