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Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Commerzbank AG PK $32.04, price $44.10, upside -27.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · Home Germany · ISIN US2025976059

CA Commerzbank AG PK logo Broad data Oct 1, 2026

Commerzbank AG PK

CRZBY · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $32.04 · Overvalued (−27.4%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Trails peers (4/15)
✓Wide moat 66/100
!Weak on future: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$50.14 $5.16 Fair Value $32.04 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.16 – $50.14 · fair‑value band $29.52 – $35.66 · the $44.10 price screens above the $32.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Commerzbank AG provides banking and capital market products and services to private and small business customers, corporate, financial service providers, and institutional clients in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, and Asia. It operates through two segments, Private and Small-Business Customers, and Corporate Clients.

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Commerzbank AG provides banking and capital market products and services to private and small business customers, corporate, financial service providers, and institutional clients in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, and Asia. It operates through two segments, Private and Small-Business Customers, and Corporate Clients. The company offers current, money market, checking, business accounts; insurance products; credit and debit cards; pension scheme; card payment terminal; and various loans. It also offers installment loans; renovation loans, debt structuring, car loan, overdraft facility; real estate financing; term deposits; and online banking services, as well as trades securities, such as shares, funds, ETFs, certificates, options and futures, and bonds. In addition, the company provides wealth management services. Commerzbank AG was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

Stock analysis

Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY) currently trades at $44.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.04, 27.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.03 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $44.10 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.33, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $29.52 (bear) to $35.66 (bull), the price of $44.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Commerzbank AG PK reported revenue of €10.7B in FY2025 versus €12.1B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.6B in FY2025, compounding +57.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $49.7B · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 4.27 · EPS (TTM) $2.52 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 24.6% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −27%, CRZBY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $29.52 Fair Value $32.04 Bull $35.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.07 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $29.15 $31.26 $34.43 76
Gordon GGM $9.43 $10.33 $11.69 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.43 $11.84 $15.21 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.43 $10.33 $11.69 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.43 $11.84 $15.21 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $26.28 $35.03 $43.79 63
P/B Multiple $34.36 $45.81 $57.27 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.36 $23.26 $34.72 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $29.15 $31.26 $34.43 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+44.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.41.9% vs 25.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 36%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

CRZBY screens overvalued: fair value 27% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −26.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8.2% · Below median
Return on assets 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 23.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 44.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.33× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.29× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 28.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.94× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)22 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)50 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Commerzbank AG PK · Fair Value
$32.04 −27%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Commerzbank AG PK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRZBY

Frequently asked questions

Is Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.04 versus a price of $44.10, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRZBY?
Our model-based fair value for Commerzbank AG PK is $32.04 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.10.
What is the quality score of CRZBY?
Commerzbank AG PK has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.04 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.52, optimistic scenario $35.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Commerzbank AG PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.04, about −27% upside versus a price of $44.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.52, optimistic scenario $35.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Commerzbank AG PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Commerzbank AG PK pay a dividend?
Commerzbank AG PK currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Commerzbank AG PK it is $32.04 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $44.10. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Commerzbank AG PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, CRZBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.10, fair value $32.04, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRZBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.04). For Commerzbank AG PK the two are $12.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Commerzbank AG PK worth?
The market values Commerzbank AG PK at about $49.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $44.10; our models calculate a fair value of $32.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRZBY?
Our models span a range for Commerzbank AG PK: cautious scenario $29.52, base $32.04, optimistic $35.66 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price $44.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CRZBY?
Commerzbank AG PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 28.4.
What is the PEG ratio of CRZBY?
The PEG ratio of Commerzbank AG PK is 0.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Commerzbank AG PK (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 4.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRZBY from its 52-week high?
Commerzbank AG PK trades at $44.10, about 12% below its 52-week high of $50.14 and 34% above the low of $32.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Commerzbank AG PK?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Commerzbank AG PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $44.10, calculated fair value $32.04 (−27%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRZBY calculated?
We run Commerzbank AG PK through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Commerzbank AG PK itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $44.10. Our model-based fair value is $32.04, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Commerzbank AG PK right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Commerzbank AG PK grew +18.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin +12.1 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Commerzbank AG PK

How large is the market capitalisation of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The market capitalisation of Commerzbank AG PK is $49.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Commerzbank AG PK is 4.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Earnings per share at Commerzbank AG PK are $2.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The dividend yield of Commerzbank AG PK is 2.5% (payout 43.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The net margin of Commerzbank AG PK is 24.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Commerzbank AG PK is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Commerzbank AG PK is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
The operating margin of Commerzbank AG PK is 44.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Revenue at Commerzbank AG PK is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY)?
Earnings per share at Commerzbank AG PK are growing +15.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY) generate?
The free cash flow of Commerzbank AG PK is €48.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Commerzbank AG PK (CRZBY) carry?
The net debt of Commerzbank AG PK is €82.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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