Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Fjord Defence Group ASA NOK 1.93, price NOK 13.75, upside -86.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 6.00 – kr 22.80 · fair‑value band kr 1.27 – kr 2.41 · the kr 13.75 price screens above the kr 1.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Fjord Defence Group ASA, a defence compounder, acquires and develops companies in the defence, security, and related segments. The company operates through the Defence and Seismic segments. It operates in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lituania, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, the rest of Europe, and the United States.
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Fjord Defence Group ASA, a defence compounder, acquires and develops companies in the defence, security, and related segments. The company operates through the Defence and Seismic segments. It operates in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lituania, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, the rest of Europe, and the United States. The company was formerly known as Aquila Holdings ASA and changed its name to Fjord Defence Group ASA in June 2025. Fjord Defence Group ASA is based in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS) currently trades at kr 13.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.93, 86.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: kr 1.27 (bear) to kr 2.41 (bull), the price of kr 13.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Fjord Defence Group ASA reported revenue of 59.0M NOK in FY2025 versus 140M NOK in FY2021, a compound −19.4%/yr. Reported net income was −90.8M NOK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.5B NOK (≈ $156M) · P/S ratio 20.6 · EPS (TTM) kr −2.66 · Net margin −161% · Return on equity −23.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.5% · Operating margin −80.9% · Revenue (TTM) 72.8M NOK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −86%, DFENS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 1.27Fair Value kr 1.93Bull kr 2.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−98.2% (2021) → −166.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−12.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−161.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−80.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.14× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fjord Defence Group ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DFENS
Frequently asked questions
Is Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.93 versus a price of kr 13.75, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DFENS?
Our model-based fair value for Fjord Defence Group ASA is kr 1.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 13.75.
What is the quality score of DFENS?
Fjord Defence Group ASA has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.27, optimistic scenario kr 2.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fjord Defence Group ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.93, about −86% upside versus a price of kr 13.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 1.27, optimistic scenario kr 2.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
Fjord Defence Group ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 72.8M NOK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fjord Defence Group ASA it is kr 1.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 13.75. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fjord Defence Group ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DFENS trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 13.75, fair value kr 1.93, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DFENS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 13.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.93). For Fjord Defence Group ASA the two are kr 11.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fjord Defence Group ASA worth?
The market values Fjord Defence Group ASA at about 1.5B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 13.75; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DFENS?
Our models span a range for Fjord Defence Group ASA: cautious scenario kr 1.27, base kr 1.93, optimistic kr 2.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 13.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fjord Defence Group ASA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −23.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DFENS from its 52-week high?
Fjord Defence Group ASA trades at kr 13.75, about 32% below its 52-week high of kr 20.30 and 13% above the low of kr 12.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fjord Defence Group ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fjord Defence Group ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 13.75, calculated fair value kr 1.93 (−86%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DFENS calculated?
We run Fjord Defence Group ASA through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Fjord Defence Group ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 13.75. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.93, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fjord Defence Group ASA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 1.27 to kr 2.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Fjord Defence Group ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
The market capitalisation of Fjord Defence Group ASA is 1.5B NOK (≈ $156M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fjord Defence Group ASA is 20.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
Earnings per share at Fjord Defence Group ASA are kr −2.66. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
The net margin of Fjord Defence Group ASA is −161% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fjord Defence Group ASA is −23.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fjord Defence Group ASA is −20.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS)?
The operating margin of Fjord Defence Group ASA is −80.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Fjord Defence Group ASA (DFENS) generate?
The free cash flow of Fjord Defence Group ASA is −43.9M NOK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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