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Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Destiny Tech100, Inc stock $6.64, price $24.37, that is 72.8% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

DT Destiny Tech100, Inc logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Destiny Tech100, Inc

DXYZ · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 73% below what the stock costs today.

Costs just 3 times its yearly profit.
Quality 40/100
Insiders bought $1.8M (6M)
Fair value $6.64 · Strongly overvalued (−72.8%)
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −98.6 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 41/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$99.79 $9.00 Fair Value $6.64 Mar 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

31‑month range $9.00 – $99.79 · fair‑value band $4.98 – $8.30 · the $24.37 price screens above the $6.64 fair value. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Destiny Tech100, Inc. operates as a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The company was founded on November 18, 2020 and is headquartered in Austin, TX.

Stock analysis

Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) currently trades at $24.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.64, 73% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $4.98 (bear) to $8.30 (bull), the price of $24.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Destiny Tech100, Inc reported revenue of −$2.8M in FY2025 versus $25.6M in FY2022. Reported net income was $44.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 3.0 · EPS (TTM) $8.05 · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$11.6M · Net cash $4.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −73%, DXYZ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.98 Fair Value $6.64 Bull $8.30
Price $24.37 · Downside -72.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.88 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple $5.86 $7.81 $9.77 55
NCAV (Graham) $2.90 $4.39 $5.49 52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple $5.86 $7.81 $9.77 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.90 $4.39 $5.49 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 22
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 76
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 31
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 18
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.8M, most recently on Sep 3, 2026. Buying cluster

  • BuySohail PrasadPresident and CEO, Director56,000 shares at $31.56$1.8MSep 3, 2026
  • BuyEthan SilverChief Operating Officer753 shares at $33.19$25,000Aug 31, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 5/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

DXYZ screens overvalued: fair value 73% below the price. Compare with Blackstone Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 589 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −72.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 10.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 3.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.51× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 24.7× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Exor N.V EXO €73.35 €139.37 +90% vs DXYZ
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $162.81 $281.42 +73% vs DXYZ
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $116.75 $197.52 +69% vs DXYZ
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $501.49 $609.56 +22% vs DXYZ
State Street Corporation STT $165.56 $139.37 −16% vs DXYZ
Ares Management Corporation ARES $133.98 $99.35 −26% vs DXYZ
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $172.76 $123.42 −29% vs DXYZ
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd BAM $52.95 $31.26 −41% vs DXYZ
Blackstone Inc BX $119.50 $52.29 −56% vs DXYZ
KKR & Co KKR $96.48 $27.32 −72% vs DXYZ

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Destiny Tech100, Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Destiny Tech100, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DXYZ

Frequently asked questions

Is Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.64 versus a price of $24.37, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DXYZ?
Our model-based fair value for Destiny Tech100, Inc is $6.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.37.
What is the quality score of DXYZ?
Destiny Tech100, Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.98, optimistic scenario $8.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Destiny Tech100, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.64, about 73% lower versus a price of $24.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.98, optimistic scenario $8.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Destiny Tech100, Inc it is $6.64 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $24.37. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Destiny Tech100, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DXYZ trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.37, fair value $6.64, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DXYZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.64). For Destiny Tech100, Inc the two are $17.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Destiny Tech100, Inc worth?
The market values Destiny Tech100, Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $24.37; our models calculate a fair value of $6.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DXYZ?
Our models span a range for Destiny Tech100, Inc: cautious scenario $4.98, base $6.64, optimistic $8.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $24.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DXYZ?
Destiny Tech100, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, EV/EBITDA 24.7.
How far is DXYZ from its 52-week high?
Destiny Tech100, Inc trades at $24.37, about 66% below its 52-week high of $71.24 and 17% above the low of $20.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Destiny Tech100, Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Destiny Tech100, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $24.37, calculated fair value $6.64 (−73%), Quality Score 40/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DXYZ calculated?
We run Destiny Tech100, Inc through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.64 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Destiny Tech100, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $24.37. Our model-based fair value is $6.64, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Destiny Tech100, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Destiny Tech100, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
The market capitalisation of Destiny Tech100, Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
Earnings per share at Destiny Tech100, Inc are $8.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Destiny Tech100, Inc is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) generate?
The free cash flow of Destiny Tech100, Inc is −$11.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) hold?
Destiny Tech100, Inc holds more cash than debt, $4.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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