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Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Destiny Tech100, Inc $10.39, price $30.35, upside -65.8%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US25063F1075

DT Destiny Tech100, Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Destiny Tech100, Inc

DXYZ · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $10.39 · Strongly overvalued (−66%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −98.6 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/9)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$99.79 $9.00 Fair Value $10.39 Mar 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

30‑month range $9.00 – $99.79 · fair‑value band $7.80 – $12.99 · the $30.35 price screens above the $10.39 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Destiny Tech100, Inc. operates as a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The company was founded on November 18, 2020 and is headquartered in Austin, TX.

Stock analysis

Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) currently trades at $30.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.39, implying the stock looks roughly 192.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 9 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $7.80 (bear) to $12.99 (bull), the price of $30.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Destiny Tech100, Inc reported revenue of −$2.8M in FY2025 versus $25.6M in FY2022. Reported net income was $44.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $993M · P/E ratio 8.6 · EPS (TTM) $3.54 · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Free cash flow −$11.6M · Net cash $4.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −66%, DXYZ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.80 Fair Value $10.39 Bull $12.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.56 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple $9.17 $12.22 $15.28 55
NCAV (Graham) $7.19 $9.63 $14.38 51
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple $9.17 $12.22 $15.28 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.19 $9.63 $14.38 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 5/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

DXYZ screens 192% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.27× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 22.4× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $124.01 $52.88 −57%
Brookfield Corporation BN $37.85 $13.75 −64%
KKR & Co KKR $98.44 $19.97 −80%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $124.15 $229.64 +85%
State Street Corporation STT $180.25 $138.33 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $512.37 $579.51 +13%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $124.72 $119.25 −4%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $173.40 $122.02 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $159.39 $312.27 +96%
T. Rowe Price Group TROW $104.17 $208.34 +100%

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Destiny Tech100, Inc · Fair Value
$10.39 −192%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Destiny Tech100, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DXYZ

Frequently asked questions

Is Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.39 versus a price of $30.35, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DXYZ?
Our model-based fair value for Destiny Tech100, Inc is $10.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.35.
What is the quality score of DXYZ?
Destiny Tech100, Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.80, optimistic scenario $12.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Destiny Tech100, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.39, about −66% upside versus a price of $30.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.80, optimistic scenario $12.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Destiny Tech100, Inc it is $10.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $30.35. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Destiny Tech100, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DXYZ trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.35, fair value $10.39, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DXYZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.39). For Destiny Tech100, Inc the two are $19.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Destiny Tech100, Inc worth?
The market values Destiny Tech100, Inc at about $993M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $30.35; our models calculate a fair value of $10.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DXYZ?
Our models span a range for Destiny Tech100, Inc: cautious scenario $7.80, base $10.39, optimistic $12.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $30.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DXYZ?
Destiny Tech100, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, EV/EBITDA 22.4.
How far is DXYZ from its 52-week high?
Destiny Tech100, Inc trades at $30.35, about 58% below its 52-week high of $72.87 and 54% above the low of $19.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Destiny Tech100, Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Destiny Tech100, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $30.35, calculated fair value $10.39 (−66%), Quality Score 40/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DXYZ calculated?
We run Destiny Tech100, Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Destiny Tech100, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $30.35. Our model-based fair value is $10.39, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Destiny Tech100, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Destiny Tech100, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
The market capitalisation of Destiny Tech100, Inc is $993M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
Earnings per share at Destiny Tech100, Inc are $3.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Destiny Tech100, Inc is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) generate?
The free cash flow of Destiny Tech100, Inc is −$11.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Destiny Tech100, Inc (DXYZ) hold?
Destiny Tech100, Inc holds more cash than debt, $4.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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