ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd A$1.07, price A$0.61, upside +75.4%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6100 – A$1.38 · fair‑value band A$0.4800 – A$1.85 · the A$0.6100 price screens below the A$1.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ECP Emerging Growth Limited operates as an investment company in Australia. The company invests in Australian small and mid-cap companies. ECP Emerging Growth Limited was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Bundall, Australia.
Stock analysis
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP) currently trades at A$0.6100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.07, implying the stock looks roughly 43.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$0.6900 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the A$0.6100 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.5400, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.4800 (bear) to A$1.85 (bull), the price of A$0.6100 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd reported revenue of A$1.7M in FY2026 versus A$4.7M in FY2022, a compound −22.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$8.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$13.7M (≈ $9.6M) · P/S ratio 19.8 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.2500 · Dividend yield 9.2% · Return on equity −16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.8% · Operating margin −28.0% · Revenue (TTM) A$728K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 75%, ECP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.4800Fair Value A$1.07Bull A$1.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+189.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2,918.5% (2021) → −473.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare ECP Emerging Growth Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+75% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−37% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−50% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.07 versus a price of A$0.6100, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ECP?
Our model-based fair value for ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is A$1.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.6100.
What is the quality score of ECP?
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.4800, optimistic scenario A$1.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ECP Emerging Growth Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.07, about +75% upside versus a price of A$0.6100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4800, optimistic scenario A$1.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$728K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does ECP Emerging Growth Ltd pay a dividend?
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ECP Emerging Growth Ltd it is A$1.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.6100. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ECP Emerging Growth Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ECP trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.6100, fair value A$1.07, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.6100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.07). For ECP Emerging Growth Ltd the two are A$0.4600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ECP Emerging Growth Ltd worth?
The market values ECP Emerging Growth Ltd at about A$13.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.6100; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECP?
Our models span a range for ECP Emerging Growth Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4800, base A$1.07, optimistic A$1.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.6100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
Balance-sheet figures for ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −35.5%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECP from its 52-week high?
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd trades at A$0.6100, about 49% below its 52-week high of A$1.21 and at the low of A$0.6100 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ECP Emerging Growth Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ECP Emerging Growth Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.6100, calculated fair value A$1.07 (+75%), Quality Score 45/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECP calculated?
We run ECP Emerging Growth Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ECP Emerging Growth Ltd currently trades 75 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was A$0.6100. Our model-based fair value is A$1.07, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ECP Emerging Growth Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.4800 to A$1.85). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
The market capitalisation of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is A$13.7M (≈ $9.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is 19.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
Earnings per share at ECP Emerging Growth Ltd are A$−0.2500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
The dividend yield of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is 9.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is −16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is −5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
The operating margin of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is −28.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
Revenue at ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is growing −7.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP)?
Earnings per share at ECP Emerging Growth Ltd are growing −68.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP) generate?
The free cash flow of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is −A$1.1M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ECP Emerging Growth Ltd (ECP) carry?
The net debt of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd is A$9.9M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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