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Exmar NV (EXMRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Exmar NV $11.04, price $12.50, upside -11.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Exmar NV
EXMRF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $11.04 · Overvalued (−11.7%)
!Quality 52/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +19.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.7% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 56/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7585 – $384,778 · fair‑value band $8.36 – $15.12 · the $12.50 price screens above the $11.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Exmar NV engages in the provision of shipping and floating infrastructure solutions worldwide. The company operates through Shipping, Infrastructure, and Supporting Services segments. It transports liquefied gas products, such as liquid natural gas, liquid petroleum gas, butane, propane, anhydrous ammonia, and petrochemical gases.
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Exmar NV engages in the provision of shipping and floating infrastructure solutions worldwide. The company operates through Shipping, Infrastructure, and Supporting Services segments. It transports liquefied gas products, such as liquid natural gas, liquid petroleum gas, butane, propane, anhydrous ammonia, and petrochemical gases. The company also offers floating infrastructure solutions to the oil and gas industries by making use of its asset portfolio, and through developing new assets for near-shore and offshore production, processing, storage or other ancillary services. In addition, it provides ship management, technical and crewing, consultancy and engineering, manufacturing, travel agency, yachting, and investment portfolio services, as well as manufactures ropes for marine, industrial, and offshore applications. The company serves fertilizer, clean energy fuel, and petrochemical industries. Exmar NV was founded in 1829 and is headquartered in Antwerp, Belgium. The company operates as a subsidiary of Saverex NV.
Stock analysis
Exmar NV (EXMRF) currently trades at $12.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.04, 11.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $14.85 per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the $12.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.63, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.36 (bear) to $15.12 (bull), the price of $12.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Exmar NV reported revenue of $248M in FY2025 versus $148M in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was $74.3M in FY2025, compounding +59.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $994M · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 3.26 · EPS (TTM) $1.15 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 30.0% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −12%, EXMRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.36
Fair Value $11.04
Bull $15.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4257 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$8.27
$11.02
$15.64
81
Growth DCF
$8.57
$11.17
$15.21
79
Owner Earnings
$7.97
$10.63
$15.09
77
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$8.27
$11.02
$15.64
81
Owner Earnings
$7.97
$10.63
$15.09
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.22
$6.96
$9.48
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.74
$13.06
$18.77
75
5Y P/E Exit
$10.27
$15.70
$22.19
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$6.43
$7.77
$9.11
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$8.48
$11.21
$14.08
70
10Y P/E Exit
$9.33
$12.70
$15.91
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$6.36
$7.77
$8.74
67
EPV
$4.62
$5.36
$5.98
71
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$14.73
$19.63
$24.54
63
P/S Multiple
$4.68
$6.24
$7.80
58
P/B Multiple
$11.92
$15.89
$19.87
55
EV/EBIT
$10.13
$13.76
$17.40
66
EV/EBITDA
$10.76
$14.61
$18.45
67
EV/Revenue
$3.15
$4.83
$6.52
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.45
$4.63
$6.91
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$8.57
$11.17
$15.21
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.22
$7.20
$9.73
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.32
$7.19
$8.68
76
ROIC Compounder
$4.62
$5.36
$5.98
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$10.40
$14.85
$19.31
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Profitability
48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 27%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price.
EXMRF screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with SLB N.V →
Compare Exmar NV with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Baker Hughes Company BKR | $55.62 | $32.38 | −42% |
| TechnipFMC plc FTI | $70.99 | $27.88 | −61% |
| Tenaris S.A TEN | €24.74 | €19.30 | −22% |
| Halliburton Company HAL | $31.88 | $21.56 | −32% |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 | ¥116.02 | ¥127.62 | +10% |
| Subsea 7 S.A SUBC | kr 324.80 | kr 251.18 | −23% |
| Saipem SpA SPM | €4.30 | €2.72 | −37% |
| Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT | €210.00 | €231.00 | +10% |
| China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 | ¥12.12 | ¥13.04 | +8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Exmar NV (EXMRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.04 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $12.50, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXMRF?
Our model-based fair value for Exmar NV is $11.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $12.50.
What is the quality score of EXMRF?
Exmar NV has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.36, optimistic scenario $15.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exmar NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.04, about −12% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $12.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.36, optimistic scenario $15.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Exmar NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $248M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Exmar NV pay a dividend?
Exmar NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exmar NV would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXMRF use?
Our models discount Exmar NV at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exmar NV that is +7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exmar NV (EXMRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exmar NV grew -2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exmar NV (EXMRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exmar NV (+7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.49 %: that much free cash flow Exmar NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exmar NV it is $11.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.50. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exmar NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EXMRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.50, fair value $11.04, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXMRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.04). For Exmar NV the two are $1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exmar NV worth?
The market values Exmar NV at about $994M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.50; our models calculate a fair value of $11.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXMRF?
Our models span a range for Exmar NV: cautious scenario $8.36, base $11.04, optimistic $15.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXMRF?
Exmar NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exmar NV (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXMRF from its 52-week high?
Exmar NV trades at $12.50, at its 52-week high of $12.50 and 18% above the low of $10.64 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exmar NV?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Tenaris S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exmar NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.50, calculated fair value $11.04 (−12%), Quality Score 52/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXMRF calculated?
We run Exmar NV through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Exmar NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $12.50. Our model-based fair value is $11.04, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exmar NV right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.36 to $15.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Exmar NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The market capitalisation of Exmar NV is $994M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exmar NV is 3.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Earnings per share at Exmar NV are $1.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The dividend yield of Exmar NV is 4.7% (payout 51.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The net margin of Exmar NV is 30.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exmar NV is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exmar NV is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
The operating margin of Exmar NV is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Revenue at Exmar NV is growing −10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exmar NV (EXMRF)?
Earnings per share at Exmar NV are growing −87.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Exmar NV (EXMRF) carry?
The net debt of Exmar NV is $93.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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