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Exsitec Holding (EXS) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · SE · Market cap 1.4B SEK

EH Exsitec Holding EXS · ST
Pricekr 108.50
Fair Valuekr 127.89
Upside+17.9%
Quality63/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 9.4% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
1.87% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range kr 94.22 – kr 159.87 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +4.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 18% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from kr 94.22 (bear) to kr 159.87 (bull), base kr 127.89. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 235.53 kr 96.80 Fair Value kr 127.89 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 96.80 – kr 235.53 · fair‑value band kr 94.22 – kr 159.87 · the kr 108.50 price screens below the kr 127.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Exsitec Holding (EXS) currently trades at kr 108.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 127.89, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Exsitec Holding generated revenue of 893M SEK at a net margin of 10.2%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.7%. Net debt stands at 350M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 94.22 (bear case) to kr 159.87 (bull case); at kr 108.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 18%, EXS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 112.22 kr 217.29 kr 379.36 80
Residual Income kr 37.32 kr 48.46 kr 123.59 76
Rev-Margin DCF kr 84.35 kr 162.36 kr 273.95 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 117.57 kr 203.11 kr 408.35 38
Owner Earnings kr 121.29 kr 250.21 kr 476.91 31
5Y Revenue Exit kr 84.35 kr 162.59 kr 279.60 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 116.43 kr 234.45 kr 401.36 41
5Y P/E Exit kr 89.97 kr 177.92 kr 285.31 38
10Y Revenue Exit kr 92.02 kr 172.84 kr 292.42 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 114.95 kr 224.67 kr 411.11 37
10Y P/E Exit kr 98.21 kr 181.93 kr 313.18 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 43.48 kr 273.99 kr 382.77 54
Lynch FV kr 79.05 kr 112.93 kr 146.81 50
PEG = 1.0 kr 79.05 kr 112.93 kr 146.81 46
EPV kr 41.94 kr 49.69 kr 56.15 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 95.92 kr 127.89 kr 159.87 63
P/S Multiple kr 81.53 kr 108.71 kr 135.89 58
P/B Multiple kr 81.53 kr 108.71 kr 135.89 55
EV/EBIT kr 105.37 kr 145.47 kr 185.57 53
EV/EBITDA kr 123.49 kr 169.62 kr 215.76 54
EV/Revenue kr 66.16 kr 100.91 kr 135.67 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 18.95 kr 25.39 kr 37.89 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 112.22 kr 217.29 kr 379.36 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 84.35 kr 162.36 kr 273.95 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 37.32 kr 48.46 kr 123.59 76
ROIC Compounder kr 44.51 kr 64.45 kr 81.43 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 110.12 kr 157.31 kr 204.50 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 181.93) versus Asset-Based (kr 25.39). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 893M SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) -0.9%
Net margin 10.2%
Return on equity 17.7%
Free cash flow 147M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 15.0
More key figures
Operating margin 16.3%
EPS (TTM) kr 6.80
Dividend yield 1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +20.3%
Net debt 350M SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Exsitec Holding AB (publ) provides digital solutions to medium-sized companies in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. It offers ERP systems; AP automation; cloud-based payroll system; budget and forecasting; analytics and reporting; CRM system; procurement; warehouse management; service, construction, and contracting system; integrations; application …

Full company description

Exsitec Holding AB (publ) provides digital solutions to medium-sized companies in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. It offers ERP systems; AP automation; cloud-based payroll system; budget and forecasting; analytics and reporting; CRM system; procurement; warehouse management; service, construction, and contracting system; integrations; application development; IT operations; e-commerce; project management; and digital marketing solutions. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Linköping, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Exsitec Holding reported revenue of kr 895M in FY2025 versus kr 536M in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was kr 85.9M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
895M SEK
Latest YoY
+10.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.1%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+26.0%
Revenue +13.7%/yr
FY21 kr 536M
FY22 kr 657M
FY23 kr 751M
FY24 kr 811M
FY25 kr 895M
Net income
FY21 −kr 22.1M
FY22 kr 56.1M
FY23 kr 70.8M
FY24 kr 59.1M
FY25 kr 85.9M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exsitec Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXS

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 475 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside +18% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.50× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.53× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 57 · sector 21
FUTURE 59 · sector 31
PAST 67 · sector 37
HEALTH 75 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 37 · sector 37

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $235.92 $143.90 -39%
Accenture plc ACNN 2,460 MXN 250.95 MXN -90%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,156 ₹1,457 +26%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,204 ₹1,230 +2%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹178.43 ₹226.81 +27%
Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM ₹1,455 ₹1,086 -25%
Samsung SDS Co 018260 199,300 KRW 196,390 KRW -1%
Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT ₹5,059 ₹2,364 -53%
Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 393,000 KRW 133,088 KRW -66%
Coforge Limited COFORGE ₹1,541 ₹702.84 -54%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Exsitec Holding (EXS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 127.89 versus a price of kr 108.50, about +18% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXS?
Our model-based fair value for Exsitec Holding is kr 127.89 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 108.50.
What is the quality score of EXS?
Exsitec Holding has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Exsitec Holding (EXS)?
Exsitec Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 893M SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EXS?
The net profit margin of Exsitec Holding is about 10.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Exsitec Holding pay a dividend?
Exsitec Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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