Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hedef Holdings AS TRY 3.33, price TRY 8.54, upside -61.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range 0.2235 TRY – 366.00 TRY · fair‑value band 2.39 TRY – 5.81 TRY · the 8.54 TRY price screens above the 3.33 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Hedef Holding A.S, an investment company, engages in the investment business in Turkey. The company offers investment consultancy, portfolio management, and corporate finance services to individual and corporate investors; and brokerage services capital market instruments.
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Hedef Holding A.S, an investment company, engages in the investment business in Turkey. The company offers investment consultancy, portfolio management, and corporate finance services to individual and corporate investors; and brokerage services capital market instruments. It also manages portfolios of domestic and foreign investment funds, investment partnerships, domestic and foreign private and legal entities, and investment companies. The company serves finance, technology, fintech, healthcare, energy, real estate, and other sectors. Hedef Holding A.S was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF) currently trades at 8.54 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.33 TRY, 61.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of 18.13 TRY per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the 8.54 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.29 TRY, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.39 TRY (bear) to 5.81 TRY (bull), the price of 8.54 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hedef Holdings AS reported revenue of 2.6B TRY in FY2025 versus 88.7M TRY in FY2021, a compound +133.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B TRY in FY2025, compounding +115.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 802B TRY (≈ $16.3B) · P/E ratio 453.0 · EPS (TTM) 0.5900 TRY · Net margin 59.2% · Return on equity 39.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 27.3% · Operating margin 116% · Revenue (TTM) 2.6B TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 98% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −61%, HEDEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.39 TRYFair Value 3.33 TRYBull 5.81 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4461 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.6%
’19
’20
’22
’23
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.100% → 97%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+67.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Below median
Fair Value upside−61.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)39.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets30.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)66.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)116.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth315.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)453.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 60
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hedef Holdings AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HEDEF
Frequently asked questions
Is Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.33 TRY versus a price of 8.54 TRY, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HEDEF?
Our model-based fair value for Hedef Holdings AS is 3.33 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 8.54 TRY.
What is the quality score of HEDEF?
Hedef Holdings AS has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.33 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.39 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.81 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hedef Holdings AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.33 TRY, about −61% upside versus a price of 8.54 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.39 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.81 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Hedef Holdings AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hedef Holdings AS would have to grow free cash flow by +67.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HEDEF use?
Our models discount Hedef Holdings AS at 14.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hedef Holdings AS that is +67.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hedef Holdings AS grew +56.1 % a year. The price currently implies +67.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hedef Holdings AS (+67.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.57 %: that much free cash flow Hedef Holdings AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hedef Holdings AS it is 3.33 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 8.54 TRY. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hedef Holdings AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HEDEF trades above its calculated fair value: price 8.54 TRY, fair value 3.33 TRY, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HEDEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (8.54 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.33 TRY). For Hedef Holdings AS the two are 5.21 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hedef Holdings AS worth?
The market values Hedef Holdings AS at about 802B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 8.54 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 3.33 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HEDEF?
Our models span a range for Hedef Holdings AS: cautious scenario 2.39 TRY, base 3.33 TRY, optimistic 5.81 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 8.54 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HEDEF?
Hedef Holdings AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 453.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.33 TRY is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hedef Holdings AS (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 39.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HEDEF from its 52-week high?
Hedef Holdings AS trades at 8.54 TRY, about 98% below its 52-week high of 366.00 TRY and 10% above the low of 7.77 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.33 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hedef Holdings AS?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hedef Holdings AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 8.54 TRY, calculated fair value 3.33 TRY (−61%), Quality Score 58/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HEDEF calculated?
We run Hedef Holdings AS through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.33 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hedef Holdings AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 8.54 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 3.33 TRY, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hedef Holdings AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.81 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (2.39 TRY to 5.81 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hedef Holdings AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
The market capitalisation of Hedef Holdings AS is 802B TRY (≈ $16.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Earnings per share at Hedef Holdings AS are 0.5900 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 453.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
The net margin of Hedef Holdings AS is 59.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hedef Holdings AS is 39.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hedef Holdings AS is 27.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
The operating margin of Hedef Holdings AS is 116% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Revenue at Hedef Holdings AS is growing +316% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hedef Holdings AS (HEDEF)?
Earnings per share at Hedef Holdings AS are growing +391% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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