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Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hengdeli Holdings $0.04, price $0.04, upside +10.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Hengdeli Holdings
HENGF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $0.0440 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0132 – $0.0531 · the $0.0400 price screens below the $0.0440 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Hengdeli Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of accessories for watches, jewellery, cosmetics, and mobile phones in the Mainland China and Hong Kong.
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Hengdeli Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of accessories for watches, jewellery, cosmetics, and mobile phones in the Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company is involved in designing and producing packaging products, commercial space; providing decoration services, as well as international commodity trading of iron ore, thermal coal, and coking coal. It also offers consuming service and supply chain services. Hengdeli Holdings Limited was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF) currently trades at $0.0400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0440, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.0700 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $0.0400 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $0.0400, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hengdeli Holdings reported revenue of 649M CNY in FY2025 versus 993M CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −26.9M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $176M · P/S ratio 0.14 · Net margin −4.1% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.8% · Operating margin −15.7% · Revenue (TTM) 649M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −27.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 10%, HENGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0440
Fair Value $0.0440
Bull $0.0440
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$0.0700
$0.0800
$0.0900
80
Owner Earnings
$0.0400
$0.0400
$0.0500
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.0600
$0.0700
$0.0800
74
All 4 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.0400
$0.0400
$0.0500
78
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0500
$0.0700
$0.1000
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.0700
$0.0800
$0.0900
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.0600
$0.0700
$0.0800
74
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Profitability
9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
97
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−37.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −25.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.3%
’14
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’18
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’20
’21
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’23
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.5% (2020) → −10.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.4% a year for the price.
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Compare Hengdeli Holdings with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 360 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$12.94 | HK$25.88 | +100% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$102.00 | HK$28.34 | −72% |
| CK Hutchison Holdings 0001 | HK$67.25 | HK$134.50 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 611,000 KRW | 348,688 KRW | −43% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $55.36 | $78.34 | +42% |
| Keppel Ltd BN4 | 11.30 SGD | 3.88 SGD | −66% |
| Kingdom Holding 4280 | 13.08 SAR | 13.40 SAR | +2% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 216.50 TRY | 182.26 TRY | −16% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0440 versus a price of $0.0400, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HENGF?
Our model-based fair value for Hengdeli Holdings is $0.0440 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0400.
What is the quality score of HENGF?
Hengdeli Holdings has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0440 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hengdeli Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0440, about +10% upside versus a price of $0.0400 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
Hengdeli Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 649M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hengdeli Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HENGF use?
Our models discount Hengdeli Holdings at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hengdeli Holdings that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hengdeli Holdings grew -11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hengdeli Holdings (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.36 %: that much free cash flow Hengdeli Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hengdeli Holdings it is $0.0440 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0400. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hengdeli Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HENGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0400, fair value $0.0440, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HENGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0440). For Hengdeli Holdings the two are $0.0040 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hengdeli Holdings worth?
The market values Hengdeli Holdings at about $176M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0400; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0440 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hengdeli Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HENGF from its 52-week high?
Hengdeli Holdings trades at $0.0400, at its 52-week high of $0.0400 and 100% above the low of $0.0200 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0440 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hengdeli Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hengdeli Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0400, calculated fair value $0.0440 (+10%), Quality Score 60/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HENGF calculated?
We run Hengdeli Holdings through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0440, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hengdeli Holdings currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0400. Our model-based fair value is $0.0440, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hengdeli Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0440). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Hengdeli Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The market capitalisation of Hengdeli Holdings is $176M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hengdeli Holdings is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The net margin of Hengdeli Holdings is −4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hengdeli Holdings is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hengdeli Holdings is −1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
The operating margin of Hengdeli Holdings is −15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
Revenue at Hengdeli Holdings is growing −27.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hengdeli Holdings (HENGF)?
Earnings per share at Hengdeli Holdings are growing −8.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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