Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hitachi Ltd stock $31.88, price $36.23, upside -12.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.41 – $37.11 · fair‑value band $23.08 – $42.21 · the $36.23 price screens above the $31.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 18, 2026.
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Hitachi, Ltd. provides digital system and services, green energy and mobility, and connective industry solutions in Japan and internationally. It operates through Digital Systems & Services, Green Energy & Mobility, Connective Industries, and Others segments.
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The company offers system integration, consulting, cloud services, storage, servers, software, and ATMs; finance solutions, social infrastructure information systems, public IT solutions, industrial internet of things, digital engineering, control system, and cloud services; and IT products, such as data management and storage.
It also provides power grids, clean, nuclear, renewable energy, and railway systems, such as rolling stock, signaling, supervision, telecommunications, and ticketing and payment solutions; automotive automation, including automotive assembly, glass applications, press automation, powertrain, paint and sealer applications, and tyre and wheel systems; and emobility solutions, as well as elevators and escalators, home appliances, air conditioners, industry and distribution solution, water and environment solutions, and industrial machinery.
In addition, the company offers semiconductor manufacturing equipment; electron microscopes and atomic force microscopes; analytical systems, such as spectrophotometers, thermal analysis and chromatography systems, x-ray fluorescence analyzers, silicon drift detectors, potentiometric titrator, laser induced breakdown spectroscopy, and magnetic induction devices; clinical analyzers, and treatment and diagnostics solutions; and property management and other services.
The company serves semiconductors, automotive , electrical, chemical and pharmaceuticals, healthcare, life-sciences, ICT, metals and mining, engineering and manufacturing, oils and petrochemicals, nonmetal materials, energy and batteries, environment, recycling, food and beverage, utilities, and other industries.
Hitachi, Ltd. was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY) currently trades at $36.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.88, 12.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.84 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $36.23 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.97, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.08 (bear) to $42.21 (bull), the price of $36.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hitachi Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥11.2T in FY2026 versus ¥10.3T in FY2022, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥851B in FY2026, compounding +9.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $163B Large · P/E ratio 33.2 · P/S ratio 2.52 · EPS (TTM) $1.09 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −12%, HTHIY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.08Fair Value $31.88Bull$42.21
Price $36.23 · Upside -12.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4305 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.8% vs 15.5%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Hitachi's physical infrastructure expertise supports AI-driven cyber resilience in OT environments through its Anthropic tie-up, yet the conglomerate structure risks uneven scaling and integration complexity across legacy systems.
Main risk: Conglomerate complexity may slow uniform scaling of secure Physical AI solutions across sectors and hit adoption rates in power, water and manufacturing.
Hitachi is deepening its tie-up with Anthropic through a new Critical Infrastructure Defense Program aimed at OT environments in power, water and manufacturing. This extends its physical infrastructure expertise and HMAX initiatives into AI-driven cyber resilience, yet the conglomerate model may struggle to scale these gains uniformly across sectors. Will its domain knowledge deliver faster adoption of secure Physical AI solutions or will integration complexity across legacy systems slow the overall impact?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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As of Oct 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.88 versus a price of $36.23, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HTHIY?
Our model-based fair value for Hitachi Ltd ADR is $31.88 (as of Oct 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.23.
What is the quality score of HTHIY?
Hitachi Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.88 (as of Oct 18, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.08, optimistic scenario $42.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hitachi Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.88, about −12% upside versus a price of $36.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.08, optimistic scenario $42.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Hitachi Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.0T (latest available figure, as of Oct 18, 2026).
Does Hitachi Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Hitachi Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 0.87% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hitachi Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Oct 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HTHIY use?
Our models discount Hitachi Ltd ADR at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hitachi Ltd ADR that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hitachi Ltd ADR grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hitachi Ltd ADR (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.43 %: that much free cash flow Hitachi Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hitachi Ltd ADR it is $31.88 per share (as of Oct 18, 2026), against a price of $36.23. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hitachi Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 18, 2026, HTHIY trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.23, fair value $31.88, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTHIY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.88). For Hitachi Ltd ADR the two are $4.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hitachi Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Hitachi Ltd ADR at about $163B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 18, 2026). Per share that is $36.23; our models calculate a fair value of $31.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTHIY?
Our models span a range for Hitachi Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $23.08, base $31.88, optimistic $42.21 per share (as of Oct 18, 2026, price $36.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTHIY?
Hitachi Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.2 (as of Oct 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 3.9, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HTHIY?
The PEG ratio of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 2.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hitachi Ltd ADR (as of Oct 18, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTHIY from its 52-week high?
Hitachi Ltd ADR trades at $36.23, about 2% below its 52-week high of $37.11 and 32% above the low of $27.51 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hitachi Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, CK Hutchison Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hitachi Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 18, 2026: price $36.23, calculated fair value $31.88 (−12%), Quality Score 67/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTHIY calculated?
We run Hitachi Ltd ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Hitachi Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was $36.23. Our model-based fair value is $31.88, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hitachi Ltd ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($23.08 to $42.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hitachi Ltd ADR grew +14.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.2 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hitachi Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The market capitalisation of Hitachi Ltd ADR is $163B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 2.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Earnings per share at Hitachi Ltd ADR are $1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The dividend yield of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 0.9% (payout 29.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The net margin of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
The operating margin of Hitachi Ltd ADR is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Revenue at Hitachi Ltd ADR is growing +20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY)?
Earnings per share at Hitachi Ltd ADR are growing +0.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hitachi Ltd (HTHIY) hold?
Hitachi Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥316B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 18, 2026