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Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hongkong Land Holdings $1.51, price $8.57, upside -82.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Hongkong Land Holdings
HKHGF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $1.51 · Strongly overvalued (−82.4%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 87.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!2.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 39/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.63 – $8.63 · fair‑value band $1.51 – $2.43 · the $8.57 price screens above the $1.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell.
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Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell. The company owns and manages mixed-use real estate, including offices, luxury retail, residential, and hospitality products in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai. It is also involved in hotel investment, finance, and project management businesses. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jardine Strategic Limited.
Stock analysis
Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF) currently trades at $8.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.51, 82.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $10.78 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $8.57 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.8700, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.51 (bear) to $2.43 (bull), the price of $8.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hongkong Land Holdings reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $18.8B · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 12.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.5800 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 85.0% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −82%, HKHGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3500 to $10.78). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.51
Fair Value $1.51
Bull $2.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2495 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.03
$2.04
$3.55
77
Growth DCF
$1.11
$2.08
$3.45
76
Residual Income
$10.82
$10.78
$11.15
76
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.03
$2.04
$3.55
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1900
$0.8300
$1.62
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.4700
$1.32
$2.28
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.4500
$1.07
$1.78
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6600
$1.40
$2.24
66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.15
$3.11
$4.10
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.15
$3.03
$4.06
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$3.38
$4.51
$5.63
58
P/B Multiple
$7.51
$10.01
$12.52
55
EV/EBIT
$0.8600
$1.65
$2.45
63
EV/EBITDA
$0.4000
$1.04
$1.68
62
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.3500
$0.9100
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.18
$9.62
$14.36
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.11
$2.08
$3.45
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.1900
$0.8700
$1.63
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$10.82
$10.78
$11.15
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.6% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+49.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.46.7% vs −3.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−119% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.9% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.7%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 | HK$107.10 | HK$155.14 | +45% |
| China Resources Land Limited 1109 | HK$28.64 | HK$71.60 | +150% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$45.90 | HK$71.49 | +56% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹658.40 | ₹167.48 | −75% |
| China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 | HK$12.42 | HK$22.33 | +80% |
| Sino Land Company 0083 | HK$9.94 | HK$7.28 | −27% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,165 | ₹274.14 | −76% |
| Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 | ¥5.77 | ¥5.87 | +2% |
| China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 | ¥7.18 | ¥6.04 | −16% |
| The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 | HK$19.39 | HK$8.31 | −57% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.51 versus a price of $8.57, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HKHGF?
Our model-based fair value for Hongkong Land Holdings is $1.51 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.57.
What is the quality score of HKHGF?
Hongkong Land Holdings has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.51 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.51, optimistic scenario $2.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongkong Land Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.51, about −82% upside versus a price of $8.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.51, optimistic scenario $2.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
Hongkong Land Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Hongkong Land Holdings pay a dividend?
Hongkong Land Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hongkong Land Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKHGF use?
Our models discount Hongkong Land Holdings at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hongkong Land Holdings that is +22.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hongkong Land Holdings grew -6.6 % a year. The price currently implies +22.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hongkong Land Holdings (+22.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.24 %: that much free cash flow Hongkong Land Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongkong Land Holdings it is $1.51 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $8.57. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hongkong Land Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HKHGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.57, fair value $1.51, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKHGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.51). For Hongkong Land Holdings the two are $7.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongkong Land Holdings worth?
The market values Hongkong Land Holdings at about $18.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.57; our models calculate a fair value of $1.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKHGF?
Our models span a range for Hongkong Land Holdings: cautious scenario $1.51, base $1.51, optimistic $2.43 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $8.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HKHGF from its 52-week high?
Hongkong Land Holdings trades at $8.57, about 1% below its 52-week high of $8.63 and 54% above the low of $5.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongkong Land Holdings?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongkong Land Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $8.57, calculated fair value $1.51 (−82%), Quality Score 63/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKHGF calculated?
We run Hongkong Land Holdings through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hongkong Land Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.57. Our model-based fair value is $1.51, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongkong Land Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Hongkong Land Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The market capitalisation of Hongkong Land Holdings is $18.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Hongkong Land Holdings is 14.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongkong Land Holdings is 12.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
Earnings per share at Hongkong Land Holdings are $0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The dividend yield of Hongkong Land Holdings is 2.9% (payout 43.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The net margin of Hongkong Land Holdings is 85.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongkong Land Holdings is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongkong Land Holdings is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
The operating margin of Hongkong Land Holdings is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
Revenue at Hongkong Land Holdings is growing −32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF)?
Earnings per share at Hongkong Land Holdings are growing −63.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hongkong Land Holdings (HKHGF) carry?
The net debt of Hongkong Land Holdings is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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