Vinhomes JSC (VHM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Vinhomes JSC VND 70,290, price VND 63,900, upside +10.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16,611 VND – 78,963 VND · fair‑value band 44,123 VND – 115,998 VND · the 63,900 VND price screens below the 70,290 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Vinhomes Joint Stock Company develops and sells real estate properties in Vietnam. The company also leases office properties. In addition, it provides real estate management and related services; general contractor; consulting and designing construction; and supervision and construction management services.
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Vinhomes Joint Stock Company develops and sells real estate properties in Vietnam. The company also leases office properties. In addition, it provides real estate management and related services; general contractor; consulting and designing construction; and supervision and construction management services. The company was formerly known as Hanoi Southern City Development Joint Stock Company and changed its name to Vinhomes Joint Stock Company in February 2018. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam. Vinhomes Joint Stock Company operates as a subsidiary of Vingroup Joint Stock Company.
Stock analysis
Vinhomes JSC (VHM) currently trades at 63,900 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 70,290 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 169,641 VND per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the 63,900 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 19,265 VND, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 44,123 VND (bear) to 115,998 VND (bull), the price of 63,900 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vinhomes JSC reported revenue of 153T VND in FY2025 versus 85.0T VND in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was 41.9T VND in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 568T VND · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 3.78 · EPS (TTM) 4,623 VND · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 33.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 10%, VHM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 44,123 VNDFair Value 70,290 VNDBull 115,998 VND
Price 63,900 VND · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,272 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+49.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 25%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price and +9.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 579 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)33.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)33.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)63.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth187.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinhomes JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VHM
Frequently asked questions
Is Vinhomes JSC (VHM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 70,290 VND versus a price of 63,900 VND, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VHM?
Our model-based fair value for Vinhomes JSC is 70,290 VND (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 63,900 VND.
What is the quality score of VHM?
Vinhomes JSC has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 70,290 VND (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 44,123 VND, optimistic scenario 115,998 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vinhomes JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 70,290 VND, about +10% upside versus a price of 63,900 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 44,123 VND, optimistic scenario 115,998 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Vinhomes JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 236T VND (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does Vinhomes JSC pay a dividend?
Vinhomes JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.69% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vinhomes JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VHM use?
Our models discount Vinhomes JSC at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vinhomes JSC that is +11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vinhomes JSC (VHM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vinhomes JSC grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vinhomes JSC (VHM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vinhomes JSC (+11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.81 %: that much free cash flow Vinhomes JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vinhomes JSC it is 70,290 VND per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of 63,900 VND. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vinhomes JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, VHM trades below its calculated fair value: price 63,900 VND, fair value 70,290 VND, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VHM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (63,900 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (70,290 VND). For Vinhomes JSC the two are 6,390 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vinhomes JSC worth?
The market values Vinhomes JSC at about 568T VND (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is 63,900 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 70,290 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VHM?
Our models span a range for Vinhomes JSC: cautious scenario 44,123 VND, base 70,290 VND, optimistic 115,998 VND per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price 63,900 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VHM?
Vinhomes JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 70,290 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vinhomes JSC (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 33.5%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VHM from its 52-week high?
Vinhomes JSC trades at 63,900 VND, about 19% below its 52-week high of 78,963 VND and 53% above the low of 41,841 VND (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 70,290 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vinhomes JSC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vinhomes JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price 63,900 VND, calculated fair value 70,290 VND (+10%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VHM calculated?
We run Vinhomes JSC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 70,290 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Vinhomes JSC currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was 63,900 VND. Our model-based fair value is 70,290 VND, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vinhomes JSC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (44,123 VND to 115,998 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Vinhomes JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The market capitalisation of Vinhomes JSC is 568T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vinhomes JSC is 3.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Earnings per share at Vinhomes JSC are 4,623 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The dividend yield of Vinhomes JSC is 4.7% (payout 64.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The net margin of Vinhomes JSC is 27.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vinhomes JSC is 33.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vinhomes JSC is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The operating margin of Vinhomes JSC is 63.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Revenue at Vinhomes JSC is growing +188% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Earnings per share at Vinhomes JSC are growing +201% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vinhomes JSC (VHM) carry?
The net debt of Vinhomes JSC is 96.3T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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