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GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc $1.03, price $1.15, upside -10.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA39526C1068

Thin data Sep 24, 2026

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc

ICLTF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $1.03 · Overvalued (−10.4%)

!Quality 40/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −12.1 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -41.2% net margin (TTM)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!Trails peers (2/11)

!Narrow moat 9/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $0.7700 to bull $1.54 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 40/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.15 – $37.58 · fair‑value band $0.7700 – $1.54 · the $1.15 price screens above the $1.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of lumber products in Canada and the United States.

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of lumber products in Canada and the United States. The company provides spruce, pine, and fir lumber products; wood chips; and other by-products, such as chips and residual fiber for use in residential and multi-family homes, light industrial and commercial facilities, and the home repair and remodel markets. It serves retail chains, contractor supply yards, distributors, wholesalers, and industrial customers. The company was formerly known as Itasca Capital Ltd. and changed its name to GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. in January 2021. GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. is headquartered in North Bay, Canada.

Stock analysis

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF) currently trades at $1.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.03, 10.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.7700 (bear) to $1.54 (bull), the price of $1.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc reported revenue of C$303M in FY2025 versus C$123M in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was −C$98.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $35.9M · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $−3.77 · Net margin −32.6% · Return on equity −128% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.1% · Operating margin −31.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$292M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −10%, ICLTF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.7700 Fair Value $1.03 Bull $1.54

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

NCAV (Graham) $0.9200 $1.23 $1.84 54

All 1 models by family

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.9200 $1.23 $1.84 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 21

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 34

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 1

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 40

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 85

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 34

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 7

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 0

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

+6.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−12.1%

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

5.3% (2022) → −27.7% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

ICLTF screens overvalued: fair value 10% below the price. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →

Compare GreenFirst Forest Products Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 69 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 41 · Below median

Fair Value upside −27.9% · Below median

Profitability

Return on assets −28.3% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) −41.2% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) −31.4% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −15.6% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.43× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.59× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 1.29× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 26

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 5

HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 91

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 36

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD	$176.55	$194.21	+10%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI	$79.49	$103.76	+31%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ	C$69.65	C$115.37	+66%
Boise Cascade Company BCC	$74.15	$52.72	−29%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY	₹666.45	₹201.01	−70%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043	¥12.02	¥15.06	+25%
Canfor Corporation CFP	C$15.71	C$4.54	−71%
Interfor Corporation IFP	C$14.47	C$6.43	−56%
Greenlam Industries Limited GREENLAM	₹212.85	₹48.51	−77%
Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group 601996	¥2.88	¥3.01	+5%

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GreenFirst Forest Products Inc · Fair Value
$1.03 −10%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ICLTF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">GreenFirst Forest Products Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$1.03</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−10%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GreenFirst Forest Products Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ICLTF

Frequently asked questions

Is GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.03 versus a price of $1.15, about −10% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of ICLTF?

Our model-based fair value for GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is $1.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.15.

What is the quality score of ICLTF?

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7700, optimistic scenario $1.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the GreenFirst Forest Products Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $1.03, about −10% upside versus a price of $1.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7700, optimistic scenario $1.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$292M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GreenFirst Forest Products Inc it is $1.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.15. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is GreenFirst Forest Products Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, ICLTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.15, fair value $1.03, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of ICLTF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.03). For GreenFirst Forest Products Inc the two are $0.1200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is GreenFirst Forest Products Inc worth?

The market values GreenFirst Forest Products Inc at about $35.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.15; our models calculate a fair value of $1.03 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ICLTF?

Our models span a range for GreenFirst Forest Products Inc: cautious scenario $0.7700, base $1.03, optimistic $1.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the PEG ratio of ICLTF?

The PEG ratio of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is 1.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

Balance-sheet figures for GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −128.4%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is ICLTF from its 52-week high?

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc trades at $1.15, about 43% below its 52-week high of $2.03 and at the low of $1.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.03 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to GreenFirst Forest Products Inc?

From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Stella-Jones Inc, Boise Cascade Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is GreenFirst Forest Products Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.15, calculated fair value $1.03 (−10%), Quality Score 40/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of ICLTF calculated?

We run GreenFirst Forest Products Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. GreenFirst Forest Products Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.15. Our model-based fair value is $1.03, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with GreenFirst Forest Products Inc right now?

A fairly wide model range ($0.7700 to $1.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

The market capitalisation of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is $35.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

Earnings per share at GreenFirst Forest Products Inc are $−3.77. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

The net margin of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is −32.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is −128% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is −10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

The operating margin of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is −31.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

Revenue at GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is growing −15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF)?

Earnings per share at GreenFirst Forest Products Inc are growing −68.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF) generate?

The free cash flow of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is −C$40.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does GreenFirst Forest Products Inc (ICLTF) carry?

The net debt of GreenFirst Forest Products Inc is C$31.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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