Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ufp Industries Inc stock $104, price $79.92, upside +29.8%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.65 – $135.08 · fair‑value band $72.63 – $134.89 · the $79.92 price screens below the $103.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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UFP Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies wood and non-wood composites, and other materials in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Construction, and Packaging.
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The Retail segment offers pressure-treated and fire-retardant products under the ProWood brand; lawn and garden products, such as wood and vinyl fencing and lattice, garden beds and planters, pergolas, picnic tables, and other landscaping products under the Outdoor Essentials brand; wood plastic composite; mineral based composite decking and related decking accessories, including aluminum railing systems, balusters, and post caps under the Surestone brand; customized and aluminum fencing; exterior siding, pattern, trim, and fascia products; and pre-painted and primed shiplap, and project boards.
The Packaging segment designs, engineers, manufactures, and tests custom packaging products made of wood and metal; designs and manufactures pallets made of wood and heat-treated wood; and provides corrugate, foam, labels, strapping, and films.
The Construction segment designs and manufactures roof trusses, cut-to-size dimensional and board lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board; designs and manufactures roof and floor trusses, wall panels, I-joists, lumber packages, and engineered wood components used to frame residential and light commercial projects.
This segment also engages in the designing, manufacturing, and installing of customized interior fixtures, casework, and architectural millwork used in retail and commercial structures; designs, manufactures, and supplies wood forms and related products for residential building, non-residential building, distribution, and infrastructure verticals.
The company was formerly known as Universal Forest Products, Inc. and changed its name to UFP Industries, Inc. in April 2020. UFP Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1955 and is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Stock analysis
Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) currently trades at $79.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.76, implying the stock looks roughly 23% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $118.98 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $79.92 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $21.88, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $72.63 (bear) to $134.89 (bull), the price of $79.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ufp Industries Inc reported revenue of $6.3B in FY2025 versus $8.6B in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $295M in FY2025, compounding −13.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5B Mid · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) $4.14 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 30%, UFPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$72.63Fair Value $103.76Bull$134.89
Price $79.92 · Upside +29.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleMatthew J MissadExecutive Chairman11,000 shares at $92.26$1.0MDec 11, 2025
SaleMichael G. WooldridgeDirector1,192 shares at $93.43$111,369Nov 26, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.0% vs 14.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from a shift toward higher-value products in packaging and retail that support steadier margins, yet remains exposed to swings in construction demand tied to housing cycles that can pressure volumes.
Main risk: A slowdown in building activity would pressure volumes as construction demand continues to swing with housing cycles.
UFP Industries has been tilting its mix toward higher-value products in packaging and retail, which tends to deliver steadier margins than raw lumber. Construction demand still swings with housing cycles and could pressure volumes. Does the shift to these value-added lines generate enough stability to outweigh any slowdown in building activity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+29.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.70× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.2× · Pricier than median
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Is Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $103.76 versus a price of $79.92, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UFPI?
Our model-based fair value for Ufp Industries Inc is $103.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $79.92.
What is the quality score of UFPI?
Ufp Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $103.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $72.63, optimistic scenario $134.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ufp Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $103.76, about +30% upside versus a price of $79.92 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $72.63, optimistic scenario $134.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Ufp Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Ufp Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Ufp Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ufp Industries Inc pays a dividend of $1.43 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 1, 2026, with payment on Dec 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 34.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.50 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ufp Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.2 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UFPI use?
Our models discount Ufp Industries Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ufp Industries Inc that is +3.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ufp Industries Inc grew +4.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ufp Industries Inc (+3.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Ufp Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ufp Industries Inc it is $103.76 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $79.92. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ufp Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, UFPI trades below its calculated fair value: price $79.92, fair value $103.76, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UFPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($79.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($103.76). For Ufp Industries Inc the two are $23.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ufp Industries Inc worth?
The market values Ufp Industries Inc at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $79.92; our models calculate a fair value of $103.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UFPI?
Our models span a range for Ufp Industries Inc: cautious scenario $72.63, base $103.76, optimistic $134.89 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $79.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UFPI?
Ufp Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $103.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 14.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of UFPI?
The PEG ratio of Ufp Industries Inc is 2.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ufp Industries Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UFPI from its 52-week high?
Ufp Industries Inc trades at $79.92, about 30% below its 52-week high of $114.21 and 8% above the low of $74.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $103.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ufp Industries Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, Boise Cascade Company, Stella-Jones Inc, Zhongfu Straits (Pingtan) Development Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ufp Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $79.92, calculated fair value $103.76 (+30%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UFPI calculated?
We run Ufp Industries Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $103.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ufp Industries Inc currently trades 23% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $79.92. Our model-based fair value is $103.76, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ufp Industries Inc right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($72.63 to $134.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) come from?
Earnings per share at Ufp Industries Inc grew +20.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ufp Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The market capitalisation of Ufp Industries Inc is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ufp Industries Inc is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Earnings per share at Ufp Industries Inc are $4.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The dividend yield of Ufp Industries Inc is 1.8% (payout 34.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The net margin of Ufp Industries Inc is 3.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ufp Industries Inc is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ufp Industries Inc is 17.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
The operating margin of Ufp Industries Inc is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Revenue at Ufp Industries Inc is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)?
Earnings per share at Ufp Industries Inc are growing −18.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) hold?
Ufp Industries Inc holds more cash than debt, $695M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026