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UFP Industries, Inc (UFPI) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $5.0B

UI UFP Industries, Inc logo UFP Industries, Inc UFPI · US
Price$94.04
Fair Value$108.78
Upside+15.7%
Quality64/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.66% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range $71.94 – $137.01 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $108.38 to $108.78 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +14.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 16% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range ($71.94 to $137.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from $71.94 (bear) to $137.01 (bull), base $108.78. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$135.66 $61.91 Fair Value $108.78 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $61.91 – $135.66 · fair‑value band $71.94 – $137.01 · the $94.04 price screens below the $108.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

UFP Industries, Inc (UFPI) currently trades at $94.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $108.78, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, UFP Industries, Inc generated revenue of $6.2B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue declined 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $695M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $71.94 (bear case) to $137.01 (bull case); at $94.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 16%, UFPI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $67.28 $94.64 $133.20 80
Residual Income $46.68 $51.20 $70.53 76
Rev-Margin DCF $68.31 $104.32 $147.03 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $66.86 $98.66 $146.90 38
Owner Earnings $49.12 $70.58 $103.13 31
5Y Revenue Exit $68.31 $104.60 $151.67 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $84.39 $135.46 $196.31 41
5Y P/E Exit $79.21 $125.52 $175.27 38
10Y Revenue Exit $65.44 $98.29 $143.96 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $77.34 $119.53 $178.07 37
10Y P/E Exit $74.08 $112.69 $161.99 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $35.49 $124.42 $167.33 54
Lynch FV $29.01 $41.44 $53.87 50
PEG = 1.0 $29.01 $41.44 $53.87 46
EPV $55.91 $62.79 $68.73 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $12.81 $25.52 $38.64 70
DDM Multi-Stage $12.81 $22.00 $26.93 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $82.21 $109.61 $137.01 63
P/S Multiple $66.55 $88.73 $110.91 58
P/B Multiple $66.55 $88.73 $110.91 55
EV/EBIT $95.18 $122.80 $150.42 53
EV/EBITDA $103.49 $133.87 $164.26 54
EV/Revenue $71.46 $96.81 $122.15 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $27.30 $36.59 $54.61 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $67.28 $94.64 $133.20 80
Rev-Margin DCF $68.31 $104.32 $147.03 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $46.68 $51.20 $70.53 76
ROIC Compounder $56.32 $67.85 $82.74 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $70.94 $101.34 $131.74 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($104.60) versus Dividend Discount ($22.00). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $6.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.4%
Net margin 4.3%
Return on equity 8.4%
Free cash flow $276M FY2025
P/E ratio 18.5
More key figures
Operating margin 4.3%
EPS (TTM) $4.80
Dividend yield 1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -31.4%
Net cash $695M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

UFP Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies wood and non-wood composites, and other materials in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Construction, and Packaging.

Full company description

UFP Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies wood and non-wood composites, and other materials in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Construction, and Packaging. The Retail segment offers pressure-treated and fire-retardant products under the ProWood brand; lawn and garden products, such as wood and vinyl fencing and lattice, garden beds and planters, pergolas, picnic tables, and other landscaping products under the Outdoor Essentials brand; wood plastic composite; mineral based composite decking and related decking accessories, including aluminum railing systems, balusters, and post caps under the Surestone brand; customized and aluminum fencing; exterior siding, pattern, trim, and fascia products; and pre-painted and primed shiplap, and project boards. The Packaging segment designs, engineers, manufactures, and tests custom packaging products made of wood and metal; designs and manufactures pallets made of wood and heat-treated wood; and provides corrugate, foam, labels, strapping, and films. The Construction segment designs and manufactures roof trusses, cut-to-size dimensional and board lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board; designs and manufactures roof and floor trusses, wall panels, I-joists, lumber packages, and engineered wood components used to frame residential and light commercial projects. This segment also engages in the designing, manufacturing, and installing of customized interior fixtures, casework, and architectural millwork used in retail and commercial structures; designs, manufactures, and supplies wood forms and related products for residential building, non-residential building, distribution, and infrastructure verticals. The company was formerly known as Universal Forest Products, Inc. and changed its name to UFP Industries, Inc. in April 2020. UFP Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1955 and is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

UFP Industries, Inc reported revenue of $6.3B in FY2025 versus $8.6B in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $295M in FY2025, compounding −13.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$6.3B
Latest YoY
−5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−13.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.2%
Avg. growth/yr (32Y)
+7.4%
Revenue −7.5%/yr
FY21 $8.6B
FY22 $9.6B
FY23 $7.2B
FY24 $6.7B
FY25 $6.3B
Net income −13.9%/yr
FY21 $536M
FY22 $693M
FY23 $514M
FY24 $415M
FY25 $295M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UFP Industries, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UFPI

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +16% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Revenue growth -8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.63× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.81× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 18.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.67× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 54 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 34 · sector 0
HEALTH 96 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 33 · sector 32

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $188.80 $147.92 -22%
West Fraser Timber Co WFG C$98.54 C$51.55 -48%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$78.93 C$96.01 +22%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $76.06 $51.92 -32%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹799.50 ₹201.01 -75%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥11.74 ¥14.78 +26%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$14.17 C$4.54 -68%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$13.45 C$6.43 -52%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 ¥3.05 ¥0.6700 -78%
Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 ¥21.99 ¥2.52 -89%

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Frequently asked questions

Is UFP Industries, Inc (UFPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $108.78 versus a price of $94.04, about +16% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UFPI?
Our model-based fair value for UFP Industries, Inc is $108.78 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $94.04.
What is the quality score of UFPI?
UFP Industries, Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of UFP Industries, Inc (UFPI)?
UFP Industries, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UFPI?
The net profit margin of UFP Industries, Inc is about 4.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does UFP Industries, Inc pay a dividend?
UFP Industries, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.76% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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