West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd $7.50, price $66.50, upside -88.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.05 – $97.97 · fair‑value band $5.19 – $9.81 · the $66.50 price screens above the $7.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals.
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West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals. It operates through four segments: Lumber, North America Engineered Wood Products, Pulp & Paper, and Europe Engineered Wood Products. The Lumber segment produces spruce, pine, fir and southern yellow pine lumber, douglas fir, hemlock, wood chips, and other residuals. The North America Engineered Wood Products segment manufactures oriented strand board, laminated veneer lumber, medium-density fibreboard, plywood, and particleboard, with OSB products marketed under brands such as Durastrand pointSIX, Pinnacle Stabledge, TruFlor pointSIX and TruFlor, Rimboard, SteadiTred, QuakeZone, Windstorm, TallWall and Trubord, and SolarBord, Trubord, TruDeck, StableDeck and StableWall, DuraSmart, Stable RVand NorCore; and MDF products under Ranger, WestPine, and EcoGold. The Pulp & Paper segment produces northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), newsprint, and bleached chemithermomechanical pulp used to produce various paper products, including printing and writing papers, paper products, and tissue. The Europe Engineered Wood Products segment produces OSB, particleboard, and MDF applications including cabinet doors, mouldings and interior wall paneling under the SterlingOSB Zero, CaberFloor, and CaberMDF brands. It also provides bioenergy and green raw materials. Its products are used in home construction, repair and remodeling, paper, tissue, and box materials, and industrial applications. It sells its products to major retail chains, dealers, contractor supply yards, and wholesalers, as well as industrial customers for further processing or as components for other products in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) currently trades at $66.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.50, 88.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $51.41 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $66.50 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $7.93, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.19 (bear) to $9.81 (bull), the price of $66.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd reported revenue of $5.6B in FY2025 versus $10.5B in FY2021, a compound −14.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$953M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) $−15.35 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin −17.2% · Return on equity −19.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin −5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −89%, WFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.19Fair Value $7.50Bull $9.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.5/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.0% (2020) → −8.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare West Fraser Timber Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−88.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−6.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−23.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.00× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "West Fraser Timber Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WFG
Frequently asked questions
Is West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.50 versus a price of $66.50, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WFG?
Our model-based fair value for West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is $7.50 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.50.
What is the quality score of WFG?
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.50 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.19, optimistic scenario $9.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West Fraser Timber Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.50, about −89% upside versus a price of $66.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.19, optimistic scenario $9.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does West Fraser Timber Co Ltd pay a dividend?
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For West Fraser Timber Co Ltd it is $7.50 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $66.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is West Fraser Timber Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, WFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.50, fair value $7.50, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.50). For West Fraser Timber Co Ltd the two are $59.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is West Fraser Timber Co Ltd worth?
The market values West Fraser Timber Co Ltd at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $66.50; our models calculate a fair value of $7.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WFG?
Our models span a range for West Fraser Timber Co Ltd: cautious scenario $5.19, base $7.50, optimistic $9.81 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $66.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −19.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WFG from its 52-week high?
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd trades at $66.50, about 12% below its 52-week high of $75.95 and 17% above the low of $57.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to West Fraser Timber Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Stella-Jones Inc, Boise Cascade Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is West Fraser Timber Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $66.50, calculated fair value $7.50 (−89%), Quality Score 44/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WFG calculated?
We run West Fraser Timber Co Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. West Fraser Timber Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $66.50. Our model-based fair value is $7.50, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with West Fraser Timber Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($5.19 to $9.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The market capitalisation of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is 1.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
Earnings per share at West Fraser Timber Co Ltd are $−15.35. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The dividend yield of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is 1.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The net margin of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is −17.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is −19.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
The operating margin of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
Revenue at West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is growing −6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG)?
Earnings per share at West Fraser Timber Co Ltd are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) generate?
The free cash flow of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is −$317M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) carry?
The net debt of West Fraser Timber Co Ltd is $131M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 28, 2026