West Fraser Timber Co (WFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $5.4B
West Fraser Timber Co
WFG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +10.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.19 to $9.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.05 – $97.97 · fair‑value band $5.19 – $9.81 · the $72.14 price screens above the $7.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
West Fraser Timber Co (WFG) currently trades at $72.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.50, implying the stock looks roughly 89.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, West Fraser Timber Co generated revenue of $5.3B at a net margin of -21.9%. Revenue declined 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -18.6%. Net debt stands at $131M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.19 (bear case) to $9.81 (bull case); at $72.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -90%, WFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($51.41) versus Multiples ($7.93). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals.
Full company description
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals. It operates through four segments: Lumber, North America Engineered Wood Products, Pulp & Paper, and Europe Engineered Wood Products. The Lumber segment produces spruce, pine, fir and southern yellow pine lumber, douglas fir, hemlock, wood chips, and other residuals. The North America Engineered Wood Products segment manufactures oriented strand board, laminated veneer lumber, medium-density fibreboard, plywood, and particleboard, with OSB products marketed under brands such as Durastrand pointSIX, Pinnacle Stabledge, TruFlor pointSIX and TruFlor, Rimboard, SteadiTred, QuakeZone, Windstorm, TallWall and Trubord, and SolarBord, Trubord, TruDeck, StableDeck and StableWall, DuraSmart, Stable RVand NorCore; and MDF products under Ranger, WestPine, and EcoGold. The Pulp & Paper segment produces northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), newsprint, and bleached chemithermomechanical pulp used to produce various paper products, including printing and writing papers, paper products, and tissue. The Europe Engineered Wood Products segment produces OSB, particleboard, and MDF applications including cabinet doors, mouldings and interior wall paneling under the SterlingOSB Zero, CaberFloor, and CaberMDF brands. It also provides bioenergy and green raw materials. Its products are used in home construction, repair and remodeling, paper, tissue, and box materials, and industrial applications. It sells its products to major retail chains, dealers, contractor supply yards, and wholesalers, as well as industrial customers for further processing or as components for other products in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
West Fraser Timber Co reported revenue of $5.6B in FY2025 versus $10.5B in FY2021, a compound −14.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$953M in FY2025.
WFG screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Positive EBITDA and Debt ...
- West Fraser Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results
- West Fraser Timber Stock Charges Ahead as Lumber’s Technical Breakout Gains Steam
- West Fraser Timber declares $0.32 dividend
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $188.80 | $147.92 | -22% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $85.93 | $108.78 | +27% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$78.93 | C$96.01 | +22% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $76.06 | $51.92 | -32% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹799.50 | ₹201.01 | -75% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥11.74 | ¥14.78 | +26% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.17 | C$4.54 | -68% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.45 | C$6.43 | -52% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.05 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
| Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 | ¥21.99 | ¥2.52 | -89% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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