Simpson Manufacturing Co (SSD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $7.8B
Simpson Manufacturing Co
SSD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $146.89 to $147.92 (+0.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($90.12 to $207.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.39 – $211.32 · fair‑value band $90.12 – $207.86 · the $198.29 price screens above the $147.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Simpson Manufacturing Co (SSD) currently trades at $198.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $147.92, implying the stock looks roughly 25.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Simpson Manufacturing Co generated revenue of $2.4B at a net margin of 14.9%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. Net debt stands at $103M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $90.12 (bear case) to $207.86 (bull case); at $198.29, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -25%, SSD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($142.60) versus Asset-Based ($33.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells structural solutions for wood, concrete, and steel connections in the North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells structural solutions for wood, concrete, and steel connections in the North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company provides structural products for wood construction, such as connectors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems; anchor, repair, protection and strengthening products including coatings, sealers, mortars, fiberglass and fiber-reinforced polymer systems and asphalt products. In addition, the company offers engineering and design services, as well as software solutions. It markets its products to the residential construction, industrial, commercial and infrastructure construction, remodeling and do-it-yourself markets. It offers engineering and design services. It serves its products to dealers, home centers, wood component manufacturers, OEM-relationships, distributors, and contractors industries. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Simpson Manufacturing Co reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was $345M in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
SSD screens 25% overvalued. Compare with West Fraser Timber Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Simpson’s Q2 2026 Profit Gains and Dividend Declaration Will Impact Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Investors
- Simpson’s Q2 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
- Stocks making big moves yesterday: H&R Block, Corning, Sherwin-Williams, Brown & Brown, and Simpson
- Simpson (SSD) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$98.54 | C$51.55 | -48% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $85.93 | $108.78 | +27% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$78.93 | C$96.01 | +22% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $76.06 | $51.92 | -32% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹799.50 | ₹201.01 | -75% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥11.74 | ¥14.78 | +26% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.17 | C$4.54 | -68% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.45 | C$6.43 | -52% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.05 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
| Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 | ¥21.99 | ¥2.52 | -89% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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