Boise Cascade Company (BCC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.7B
Boise Cascade Company
BCC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $51.80 to $51.92 (+0.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($75.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($39.69 to $75.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $36.99 – $149.91 · fair‑value band $39.69 – $75.72 · the $86.60 price screens above the $51.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Boise Cascade Company (BCC) currently trades at $86.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.92, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Boise Cascade Company generated revenue of $6.4B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at $45.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $39.69 (bear case) to $75.72 (bull case); at $86.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -40%, BCC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($64.17) versus Growth DCF ($6.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution.
Full company description
Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution. The Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber and beams for use in headers and beams; I-joists for residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems and other structural applications; structural, appearance, and industrial grade plywood panels; and ponderosa pine lumber and appearance grade boards. The Building Materials Distribution segment distributes a line of building materials, including oriented strand boards, plywood, and lumber; general line items, such as siding, composite decking, doors and millwork, metal products, insulation, and roofing; and engineered wood products. It markets and sells its products to dealers, home improvement centers, wholesalers, specialty distributors, and industrial converters for use in the construction of new residential housing, repair and remodeling of existing housing, construction of light industrial and commercial buildings, and other industrial applications through warehouse and direct sales. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Boise Cascade Company reported revenue of $6.4B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2021, a compound −5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $133M in FY2025, compounding −34.3%/yr from FY2021.
BCC screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Boise Cascade (BCC) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect
- Is Boise Cascade’s Higher Dividend a Clue to Its Evolving Capital Allocation Strategy (BCC)?
- Daily Dividend Report: AAPL,AMGN,HUN,BCC,AA,BWA
- BCC vs. LPX: Which Stock Should Value Investors Buy Now?
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $188.80 | $147.92 | -22% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$98.54 | C$51.55 | -48% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $85.93 | $108.78 | +27% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$78.93 | C$96.01 | +22% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹799.50 | ₹201.01 | -75% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥11.74 | ¥14.78 | +26% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.17 | C$4.54 | -68% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.45 | C$6.43 | -52% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.05 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
| Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 | ¥21.99 | ¥2.52 | -89% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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