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Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Jardine Matheson Holdings $79.02, price $56.17, upside +40.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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JM
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Jardine Matheson Holdings
JARLF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $79.02 · Undervalued (+40.7%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.60 – $80.47 · fair‑value band $75.77 – $98.78 · the $56.17 price screens below the $79.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited operates in motor vehicles and related operations, property investment and development, health and beauty, home furnishings, engineering and construction, and transport businesses in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Macau, Other Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Mainland China, and Rest of the world.
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Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited operates in motor vehicles and related operations, property investment and development, health and beauty, home furnishings, engineering and construction, and transport businesses in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Macau, Other Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Mainland China, and Rest of the world. It is also involved in providing automotive, financial, transport, and information technology services; heavy equipment distribution, mining contracting and operations; developing, owning, and managing premium and ultra-premium mixed-use and commercial real estate. The company also operates Mannings, Guardian, 7-11, Wellcome, and IKEA retailing businesses; supermarket, health and beauty, convenience, food, home furnishings, and restaurants retails; and invests, manages, and develops property. In addition, it engages in agribusiness business; providing construction and foundation services for building, civil and maritime works; motorcycles and rendering of aftersales services; supplying, installing, and servicing engineering equipment. Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited was founded in 1832 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) currently trades at $56.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.02, implying the stock looks roughly 28.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $155.48 per share, and 9 of the 10 models we run sit above the $56.17 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $48.49, and 1 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $75.77 (bear) to $98.78 (bull), the price of $56.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Jardine Matheson Holdings reported revenue of $34.2B in FY2025 versus $35.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −21.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.5B · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) $3.77 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 41%, JARLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $75.77
Fair Value $79.02
Bull $98.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.07 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$159.67
$218.15
$308.31
79
Owner Earnings
$83.91
$118.09
$174.04
76
Residual Income
$73.67
$73.08
$75.11
76
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$83.91
$118.09
$174.04
76
5Y P/E Exit
$85.93
$113.34
$142.93
72
10Y P/E Exit
$110.51
$137.23
$164.12
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$25.59
$48.49
$60.37
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$59.27
$79.02
$98.78
63
P/B Multiple
$47.98
$63.97
$79.96
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$49.26
$66.00
$98.51
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$159.67
$218.15
$308.31
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$108.71
$155.48
$209.91
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$73.67
$73.08
$75.11
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Profitability
23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
72
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.8% vs −2.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.8% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−1.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.7%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 359 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$12.94 | HK$25.88 | +100% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$102.00 | HK$28.34 | −72% |
| CK Hutchison Holdings 0001 | HK$67.25 | HK$134.50 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 611,000 KRW | 348,688 KRW | −43% |
| Keppel Ltd BN4 | 11.30 SGD | 3.88 SGD | −66% |
| Kingdom Holding 4280 | 13.08 SAR | 13.40 SAR | +2% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 216.50 TRY | 182.26 TRY | −16% |
| Aker ASA AKER | kr 1,396 | kr 1,017 | −27% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $79.02 versus a price of $56.17, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JARLF?
Our model-based fair value for Jardine Matheson Holdings is $79.02 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.17.
What is the quality score of JARLF?
Jardine Matheson Holdings has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $79.02 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $75.77, optimistic scenario $98.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jardine Matheson Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $79.02, about +41% upside versus a price of $56.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $75.77, optimistic scenario $98.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Jardine Matheson Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $34.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Jardine Matheson Holdings pay a dividend?
Jardine Matheson Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jardine Matheson Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -16.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JARLF use?
Our models discount Jardine Matheson Holdings at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jardine Matheson Holdings that is -16.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jardine Matheson Holdings grew +0.9 % a year. The price currently implies -16.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jardine Matheson Holdings (-16.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.74 %: that much free cash flow Jardine Matheson Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jardine Matheson Holdings it is $79.02 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $56.17. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jardine Matheson Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, JARLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $56.17, fair value $79.02, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JARLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($56.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($79.02). For Jardine Matheson Holdings the two are $22.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jardine Matheson Holdings worth?
The market values Jardine Matheson Holdings at about $18.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $56.17; our models calculate a fair value of $79.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JARLF?
Our models span a range for Jardine Matheson Holdings: cautious scenario $75.77, base $79.02, optimistic $98.78 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $56.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JARLF?
Jardine Matheson Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $79.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jardine Matheson Holdings (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JARLF from its 52-week high?
Jardine Matheson Holdings trades at $56.17, about 30% below its 52-week high of $80.47 and at the low of $56.17 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $79.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jardine Matheson Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jardine Matheson Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $56.17, calculated fair value $79.02 (+41%), Quality Score 57/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JARLF calculated?
We run Jardine Matheson Holdings through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $79.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jardine Matheson Holdings currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $56.17. Our model-based fair value is $79.02, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jardine Matheson Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($75.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Jardine Matheson Holdings grew −5.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.9 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate −4.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jardine Matheson Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The market capitalisation of Jardine Matheson Holdings is $18.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jardine Matheson Holdings is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Earnings per share at Jardine Matheson Holdings are $3.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The dividend yield of Jardine Matheson Holdings is 4.2% (payout 62.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The net margin of Jardine Matheson Holdings is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jardine Matheson Holdings is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jardine Matheson Holdings is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
The operating margin of Jardine Matheson Holdings is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Revenue at Jardine Matheson Holdings is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF)?
Earnings per share at Jardine Matheson Holdings are growing +32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jardine Matheson Holdings (JARLF) carry?
The net debt of Jardine Matheson Holdings is $9.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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