Ampol Limited (ALD) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$8.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 19 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from A$5.88 to A$11.76 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$12.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$19.99 – A$39.90 · fair‑value band A$8.82 – A$12.10 · the A$38.78 price screens above the A$11.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ampol Limited (ALD) currently trades at A$38.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$11.76, implying the stock looks roughly 69.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ampol Limited generated revenue of A$31.4B at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at A$5.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$8.82 (bear case) to A$12.10 (bull case); at A$38.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -70%, ALD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 19 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (A$8.87) versus Earnings-Based (A$1.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ampol Limited purchases and sells petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. It operates through Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand segments.
Full company description
Ampol Limited purchases and sells petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. It operates through Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand segments. The Fuels and Infrastructure segment wholesales fuels and lubricants, including Lytton refinery, trading and shipping, distribution, infrastructure, and energy solutions. The Convenience Retail segment sells fuels through Ampol's network of stores. The New Zealand segment include Z Energy that distributes fuel in New Zealand market. It also engages in EV charging and home electricity solutions business. The company distributes its products through depots, terminals, pipelines, and service station sites. It sells fuels to various customers in defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial and industrial sectors. The company was formerly known as Caltex Australia Limited and changed its name to Ampol Limited in May 2020. Ampol Limited was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Alexandria, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ampol Limited reported revenue of A$31.0B in FY2025 versus A$20.9B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$82.4M in FY2025, compounding −38.1%/yr from FY2021.
ALD screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Ampol Limited - Unsponsored ADR (CTXAY) Stock Outpacing Its Oils-Energy Peers This Year?
- Is Ampol Limited - Unsponsored ADR (CTXAY) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?
- Has Ampol Limited - Unsponsored ADR (CTXAY) Outpaced Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?
- Assessing Ampol (ASX:ALD) Valuation As Shares Trade Near Recent Highs And P/E Looks Stretched
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
Compare Ampol Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Ampol Limited (ALD) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ALD?
What is the quality score of ALD?
What is the revenue of Ampol Limited (ALD)?
What is the net profit margin of ALD?
Does Ampol Limited pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Ampol Limited and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.