Ampol Ltd (ALD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ampol Ltd A$9.68, price A$44.07, upside -78.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value A$9.68 · Strongly overvalued (−78%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +15.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·5.56% dividend yield
!Trails peers(2/15)
!Narrow moat27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$19.99 – A$44.84 · fair‑value band A$4.21 – A$9.68 · the A$44.07 price screens above the A$9.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ampol Limited purchases and sells petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. It operates through Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand segments.
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Ampol Limited purchases and sells petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. It operates through Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand segments. The Fuels and Infrastructure segment wholesales fuels and lubricants, including Lytton refinery, trading and shipping, distribution, infrastructure, and energy solutions. The Convenience Retail segment sells fuels through Ampol's network of stores. The New Zealand segment include Z Energy that distributes fuel in New Zealand market. It also engages in EV charging and home electricity solutions business. The company distributes its products through depots, terminals, pipelines, and service station sites. It sells fuels to various customers in defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial and industrial sectors. The company was formerly known as Caltex Australia Limited and changed its name to Ampol Limited in May 2020. Ampol Limited was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Alexandria, Australia.
Stock analysis
Ampol Ltd (ALD) currently trades at A$44.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$9.68, implying the stock looks roughly 355.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$9.71 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the A$44.07 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$1.45, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$4.21 (bear) to A$9.68 (bull), the price of A$44.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ampol Ltd reported revenue of A$31.0B in FY2025 versus A$20.9B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$82.4M in FY2025, compounding −38.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$10.5B (≈ $7.4B) · P/E ratio 125.9 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3500 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −78%, ALD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$1.03 to A$9.86). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear A$4.21Fair Value A$9.68Bull A$9.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29% vs −16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.5% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (61 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)125.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.44× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.24× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF106.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.3× · Pricier than median
PEG3.21× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)16· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ampol Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALD
Frequently asked questions
Is Ampol Ltd (ALD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$9.68 versus a price of A$44.07, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALD?
Our model-based fair value for Ampol Ltd is A$9.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$44.07.
What is the quality score of ALD?
Ampol Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$9.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$4.21, optimistic scenario A$9.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ampol Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$9.68, about −78% upside versus a price of A$44.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$4.21, optimistic scenario A$9.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Ampol Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$31.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ampol Ltd pay a dividend?
Ampol Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ampol Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +49.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALD use?
Our models discount Ampol Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ampol Ltd that is +49.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ampol Ltd (ALD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ampol Ltd grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +49.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ampol Ltd (ALD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ampol Ltd (+49.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 %: that much free cash flow Ampol Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ampol Ltd it is A$9.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$44.07. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ampol Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALD trades above its calculated fair value: price A$44.07, fair value A$9.68, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$44.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$9.68). For Ampol Ltd the two are A$34.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ampol Ltd worth?
The market values Ampol Ltd at about A$10.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$44.07; our models calculate a fair value of A$9.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALD?
Our models span a range for Ampol Ltd: cautious scenario A$4.21, base A$9.68, optimistic A$9.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$44.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALD?
Ampol Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 125.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$9.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 2.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ALD?
The PEG ratio of Ampol Ltd is 3.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ampol Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALD from its 52-week high?
Ampol Ltd trades at A$44.07, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$44.84 and 62% above the low of A$27.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$9.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ampol Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ampol Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$44.07, calculated fair value A$9.68 (−78%), Quality Score 51/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALD calculated?
We run Ampol Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$9.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ampol Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$44.07. Our model-based fair value is A$9.68, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ampol Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$9.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$4.21 to A$9.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ampol Ltd (ALD) come from?
Earnings per share at Ampol Ltd grew −3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.4 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ampol Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The market capitalisation of Ampol Ltd is A$10.5B (≈ $7.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ampol Ltd is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Earnings per share at Ampol Ltd are A$0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 125.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The dividend yield of Ampol Ltd is 5.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The net margin of Ampol Ltd is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ampol Ltd is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ampol Ltd is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
The operating margin of Ampol Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Revenue at Ampol Ltd is growing −3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ampol Ltd (ALD)?
Earnings per share at Ampol Ltd are growing +197% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ampol Ltd (ALD) carry?
The net debt of Ampol Ltd is A$5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 75.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026