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Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Lai Fung Holdings Limited $0.18, price $0.08, upside +120.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · US · Home Hong Kong

LF Lai Fung Holdings Limited logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Lai Fung Holdings Limited

LFHLF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $0.1760 · Strongly undervalued (+120.0%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −19.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -40.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.0860 to $0.3664
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1.25 $0.0000 Fair Value $0.1760 Jun 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0000 – $1.25 · fair‑value band $0.0860 – $0.3664 · the $0.0800 price screens below the $0.1760 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation.

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Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation. The company develops properties for sale; invests in commercial and office buildings; and provides building management services. It is also involved in operation of hotels and serviced apartments; development and operation of theme parks; and invests in, develops, and operates cultural, leisure, and entertainment and related facilities. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong. Lai Fung Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Lai Sun Development Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF) currently trades at $0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1760, implying the stock looks roughly 54.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.9200 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.0800 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.1500, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.0860 (bear) to $0.3664 (bull), the price of $0.0800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Lai Fung Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2019, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$419M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $36.4M · P/S ratio 0.02 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1600 · Net margin −32.5% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 12.6% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.6B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 120%, LFHLF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0860 Fair Value $0.1760 Bull $0.3664
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $0.3400 $1.10 72
FCF DCF $0.1800 $0.8700 $2.09 71
Growth DCF $0.2600 $0.9200 $2.01 71
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.1800 $0.8700 $2.09 71
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $0.1100 69
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $0.3400 $1.10 72
10Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $0.1700 64
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $0.3200 $0.7400 65
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $0.1300 61
EV/EBITDA n/a $0.1500 >$0.6000 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.32 $3.10 $4.63 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.2600 $0.9200 $2.01 71
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a $0.1700 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−41.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.9%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
40.6% (2019) → 13.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +150.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −40.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.45× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$28.64 HK$71.60 +150%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$45.90 HK$71.49 +56%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹658.40 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$9.94 HK$7.28 −27%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.77 ¥5.87 +2%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%

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Lai Fung Holdings Limited · Fair Value
$0.1760 +55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lai Fung Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LFHLF

Frequently asked questions

Is Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1760 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0800, about +120% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LFHLF?
Our model-based fair value for Lai Fung Holdings Limited is $0.1760 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.0800.
What is the quality score of LFHLF?
Lai Fung Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1760 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0860, optimistic scenario $0.3664. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lai Fung Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1760, about +120% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0860, optimistic scenario $0.3664. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Lai Fung Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lai Fung Holdings Limited it is $0.1760 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0800. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lai Fung Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LFHLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0800, fair value $0.1760, a gap of about +120% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LFHLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1760). For Lai Fung Holdings Limited the two are $0.0960 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lai Fung Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Lai Fung Holdings Limited at about $36.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0800; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1760 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LFHLF?
Our models span a range for Lai Fung Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.0860, base $0.1760, optimistic $0.3664 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lai Fung Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LFHLF from its 52-week high?
Lai Fung Holdings Limited trades at $0.0800, about 27% below its 52-week high of $0.1100 and at the low of $0.0800 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1760 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lai Fung Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lai Fung Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0800, calculated fair value $0.1760 (+120%), Quality Score 52/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LFHLF calculated?
We run Lai Fung Holdings Limited through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1760, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lai Fung Holdings Limited currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.0800. Our model-based fair value is $0.1760, about +120% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lai Fung Holdings Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0860). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($0.0860 to $0.3664). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Lai Fung Holdings Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
The market capitalisation of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is $36.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is 0.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Earnings per share at Lai Fung Holdings Limited are $−0.1600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
The net margin of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is −32.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
The operating margin of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Revenue at Lai Fung Holdings Limited is growing +43.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF)?
Earnings per share at Lai Fung Holdings Limited are growing −26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF) generate?
The free cash flow of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is HK$292M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lai Fung Holdings Limited (LFHLF) carry?
The net debt of Lai Fung Holdings Limited is HK$9.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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