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LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of LARK Distilling Co $0.20, price $0.62, upside -67.7%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN AU0000087264

LD LARK Distilling Co logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

LARK Distilling Co

LRKKF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.2000 · Strongly overvalued (−67.7%)
!Quality 27/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +18.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -54.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.65 $0.0015 Fair Value $0.2000 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0015 – $3.65 · fair‑value band $0.1300 – $0.2500 · the $0.6200 price screens above the $0.2000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

LARK Distilling Co. Ltd. engages in the production, marketing, distribution, and sale of craft spirits. The company operates through three segments: Whisky, Gin, and Other. It offers whisky, non-lark products, as well as other products, including slainte and brandy. The company provides tasmanian gins under the Forty Spotted brand name.

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LARK Distilling Co. Ltd. engages in the production, marketing, distribution, and sale of craft spirits. The company operates through three segments: Whisky, Gin, and Other. It offers whisky, non-lark products, as well as other products, including slainte and brandy. The company provides tasmanian gins under the Forty Spotted brand name. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Australian Whisky Holdings Limited and changed its name to Lark Distilling Co. Ltd. in May 2020. Lark Distilling Co. Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is based in Hobart, Australia.

Stock analysis

LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF) currently trades at $0.6200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2000, 67.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.1300 (bear) to $0.2500 (bull), the price of $0.6200 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

LARK Distilling Co reported revenue of A$17.2M in FY2025 versus A$16.5M in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $67.0M · P/S ratio 3.77 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin −65.9% · Return on equity −8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% · Operating margin −12.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$17.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 41,233% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −68%, LRKKF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1300 Fair Value $0.2000 Bull $0.2500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.3800 $0.5100 $0.7500 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3800 $0.5100 $0.7500 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 85
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 7
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +152.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−25.0% (2020) → −50.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LRKKF screens overvalued: fair value 68% below the price. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

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LARK Distilling Co · Fair Value
$0.2000 −68%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LARK Distilling Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LRKKF

Frequently asked questions

Is LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2000 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.6200, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LRKKF?
Our model-based fair value for LARK Distilling Co is $0.2000 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.6200.
What is the quality score of LRKKF?
LARK Distilling Co has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2000 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1300, optimistic scenario $0.2500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LARK Distilling Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2000, about −68% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.6200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1300, optimistic scenario $0.2500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
LARK Distilling Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$17.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LARK Distilling Co it is $0.2000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.6200. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LARK Distilling Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LRKKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.6200, fair value $0.2000, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LRKKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2000). For LARK Distilling Co the two are $0.4200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LARK Distilling Co worth?
The market values LARK Distilling Co at about $67.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.6200; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LRKKF?
Our models span a range for LARK Distilling Co: cautious scenario $0.1300, base $0.2000, optimistic $0.2500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.6200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is LRKKF from its 52-week high?
LARK Distilling Co trades at $0.6200, about 5% below its 52-week high of $0.6508 and 41,233% above the low of $0.0015 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LARK Distilling Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LARK Distilling Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.6200, calculated fair value $0.2000 (−68%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LRKKF calculated?
We run LARK Distilling Co through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. LARK Distilling Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.6200. Our model-based fair value is $0.2000, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LARK Distilling Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.1300 to $0.2500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of LARK Distilling Co

How large is the market capitalisation of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
The market capitalisation of LARK Distilling Co is $67.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LARK Distilling Co is 3.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
Earnings per share at LARK Distilling Co are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
The net margin of LARK Distilling Co is −65.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LARK Distilling Co is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LARK Distilling Co is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
The operating margin of LARK Distilling Co is −12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
Revenue at LARK Distilling Co is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF)?
Earnings per share at LARK Distilling Co are growing −88.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF) generate?
The free cash flow of LARK Distilling Co is −A$7.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does LARK Distilling Co (LRKKF) hold?
LARK Distilling Co holds more cash than debt, A$21.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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