Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lifezone Metals Limited $0.54, price $3.85, upside -86.0%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $2.97 – $16.60 · fair‑value band $0.4000 – $0.8000 · the $3.85 price screens above the $0.5400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lifezone Metals Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the metals production and recycling business. The company's flagship project is the Kabanga Nickel Project located in north-west Tanzania. It is also involved in the intellectual property licensing business. The company is based in Douglas, Isle of Man.
Stock analysis
Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM) currently trades at $3.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5400, 86.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.4000 (bear) to $0.8000 (bull), the price of $3.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Lifezone Metals Limited reported revenue of $1.1M in FY2025 versus $2.1M in FY2021, a compound −15.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$13.6M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −86%, LZM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4000Fair Value $0.5400Bull $0.8000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.3/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2020) → −1,724.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth705.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.99× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 66
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5400 versus a price of $3.85, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LZM?
Our model-based fair value for Lifezone Metals Limited is $0.5400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.85.
What is the quality score of LZM?
Lifezone Metals Limited has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4000, optimistic scenario $0.8000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lifezone Metals Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5400, about −86% upside versus a price of $3.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4000, optimistic scenario $0.8000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
Lifezone Metals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lifezone Metals Limited it is $0.5400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.85. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lifezone Metals Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LZM trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.85, fair value $0.5400, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LZM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5400). For Lifezone Metals Limited the two are $3.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lifezone Metals Limited worth?
The market values Lifezone Metals Limited at about $442M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.85; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LZM?
Our models span a range for Lifezone Metals Limited: cautious scenario $0.4000, base $0.5400, optimistic $0.8000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lifezone Metals Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −16.4%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LZM from its 52-week high?
Lifezone Metals Limited trades at $3.85, about 37% below its 52-week high of $6.10 and 28% above the low of $3.01 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lifezone Metals Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lifezone Metals Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.85, calculated fair value $0.5400 (−86%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LZM calculated?
We run Lifezone Metals Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lifezone Metals Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.85. Our model-based fair value is $0.5400, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lifezone Metals Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4000 to $0.8000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lifezone Metals Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
The market capitalisation of Lifezone Metals Limited is $442M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
Earnings per share at Lifezone Metals Limited are $−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lifezone Metals Limited is −16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lifezone Metals Limited is −70.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
The operating margin of Lifezone Metals Limited is −1,413% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM)?
Revenue at Lifezone Metals Limited is growing +705% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM) generate?
The free cash flow of Lifezone Metals Limited is −$16.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM) carry?
The net debt of Lifezone Metals Limited is $38.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026