Moderna, Inc (M1RN34) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · BR · Market cap R$98.7B
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price +67.9% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range R$4.68 – R$15.64 · fair‑value band R$3.68 – R$6.13 · the R$15.64 price screens above the R$4.91 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Moderna, Inc (M1RN34) currently trades at R$15.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$4.91 — implying the stock looks roughly 68.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at R$2.2B. Revenue grew 260.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -36.6%. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$3.68 (bear case) to R$6.13 (bull case); at R$15.64, the current price sits above that range. The share trades near its 52-week high and 160% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside — at -69%, M1RN34 screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moderna, Inc reported revenue of R$1.9B in FY2025 versus R$18.5B in FY2021, a compound −43.0%/yr. Reported net income was −R$2.8B in FY2025.
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Recent news
- MRNA Stock Jumps to 52-Week High on Expansion Plans Beyond Vaccines
- US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Slip As Sticky Inflation Keeps Fed Cautious
- S&P 500 ends lower; chips tumble and Moderna rallies
- US Equity Markets End Lower Amid Technology Stocks Sell-Off
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.