Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carlisle Companies Incorporated stock $347, price $379, that is 8.4% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $185.69 – $471.46 · fair‑value band $231.08 – $445.06 · the $378.96 price screens above the $347.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Carlisle Companies Incorporated operates as a manufacturer and supplier of building envelope products and solutions in the United States, Europe, North America, and internationally.
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It operates through two segments, Carlisle Construction Materials (CCM) and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies (CWT). The CCM segment offers single-ply roofing solutions, including ethylene propylene diene monomer, thermoplastic polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride membrane, polyiso insulation, and engineered metal roofing and wall panel systems for commercial and residential buildings.
Its CWT segment provides waterproofing and moisture protection products; protective roofing underlayment; fully integrated liquid and sheet applied air/vapor barriers; sealants/primers and flashing systems; roof coatings and mastics; spray polyurethane foam and coating systems for a range of thermal protection applications and other premium polyurethane products; block-molded expanded polystyrene insulation; engineered products for HVAC applications; and products for a variety of industrial and surfacing applications.
The company sells its products under the Carlisle SynTec, Versico, WeatherBond, Hunter Panels, Resitrix, and Hertalan brands. The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) currently trades at $378.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $347.14, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $382.15 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $378.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $71.30, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $231.08 (bear) to $445.06 (bull), the price of $378.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Carlisle Companies Incorporated reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $741M in FY2025, compounding +15.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.5B Large · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 3.03 · EPS (TTM) $17.42 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 14.2% · Return on equity 39.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −8%, CSL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$231.08Fair Value $347.14Bull$445.06
Price $378.96 · Downside -8.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleAndrew C EastonVP & Chief Accounting Officer233 shares at $407.57$94,964Feb 19, 2026
SaleStephen SchwarVice Chair of CCM6,049 shares at $417.36$2.5MFeb 12, 2026
SaleD Christian KochChair, President & CEO36,260 shares at $413.38$15.0MFeb 10, 2026
SaleKevin P ZdimalVP & Chief Financial Officer24,180 shares at $408.04$9.9MFeb 10, 2026
SaleDavid W SmithVP, Sustainability1,800 shares at $414.05$745,290Feb 10, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.7% vs 16.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong return on equity and steady cash flows from building envelope products underpin Carlisle's operational and pricing advantages, while weak human capital innovation and unclear insider signals form its main shortcomings.
Main risk: The loss of or reduced business with either of the two largest customers, which together account for 33% of consolidated revenues, could materially reduce sales and margins in the CCM segment.
Bull case: By leveraging its reroofing focus and operational efficiencies Carlisle could deepen relationships with key customers and differentiate through innovation to maintain or grow share against rivals.
Bear case: If key customers reduce purchases or rivals gain ground through consolidation and broader offerings, Carlisle might face sustained volume declines and margin pressure in its core roofing and weatherproofing businesses.
Carlisle has raised its dividend for fifty consecutive years, a track record that highlights the steady cash generation from its building envelope products across market cycles. Re-roofing demand supports the core segments while new construction remains soft and raw material costs create ongoing pressure. Will disciplined capital returns sustain the edge more effectively than volume growth in its two main businesses?
Compare Carlisle Companies Incorporated with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 255 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−8.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)39.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.8× · Pricier than median
P/B8.61× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.03× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.9× · Pricier than median
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Is Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $347.14 versus a price of $378.96, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CSL?
Our model-based fair value for Carlisle Companies Incorporated is $347.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $378.96.
What is the quality score of CSL?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $347.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $231.08, optimistic scenario $445.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlisle Companies Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $347.14, about 8% lower versus a price of $378.96 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $231.08, optimistic scenario $445.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Carlisle Companies Incorporated pay a dividend?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carlisle Companies Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSL use?
Our models discount Carlisle Companies Incorporated at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Carlisle Companies Incorporated that is +5.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Carlisle Companies Incorporated grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +5.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Carlisle Companies Incorporated (+5.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.28 %: that much free cash flow Carlisle Companies Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlisle Companies Incorporated it is $347.14 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $378.96. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlisle Companies Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CSL trades above its calculated fair value: price $378.96, fair value $347.14, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($378.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($347.14). For Carlisle Companies Incorporated the two are $31.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlisle Companies Incorporated worth?
The market values Carlisle Companies Incorporated at about $15.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $378.96; our models calculate a fair value of $347.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSL?
Our models span a range for Carlisle Companies Incorporated: cautious scenario $231.08, base $347.14, optimistic $445.06 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $378.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSL?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $347.14 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 19.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 8.6, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CSL?
The PEG ratio of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlisle Companies Incorporated (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 39.2%, debt of 1.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSL from its 52-week high?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated trades at $378.96, about 9% below its 52-week high of $416.23 and 29% above the low of $293.64 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $347.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlisle Companies Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlisle Companies Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $378.96, calculated fair value $347.14 (−8%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSL calculated?
We run Carlisle Companies Incorporated through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $347.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Carlisle Companies Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $378.96. Our model-based fair value is $347.14, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlisle Companies Incorporated right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($231.08 to $445.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) come from?
Earnings per share at Carlisle Companies Incorporated grew +19.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin +5.8 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Carlisle Companies Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The market capitalisation of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is $15.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 3.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Earnings per share at Carlisle Companies Incorporated are $17.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The dividend yield of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 1.2% (payout 25.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The net margin of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 14.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 39.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 15.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
The operating margin of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Revenue at Carlisle Companies Incorporated is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)?
Earnings per share at Carlisle Companies Incorporated are growing +7.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) carry?
The net debt of Carlisle Companies Incorporated is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026