Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Atlas Arteria Limited $3.98, price $3.08, upside +29.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.21 – $4.09 · fair‑value band $2.30 – $6.27 · the $3.08 price screens below the $3.98 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Atlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads in France, Germany, Australia, Bermuda, and the United States.
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Atlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads in France, Germany, Australia, Bermuda, and the United States. It holds 30.82% interest in the APRR motorway network, 30.85% interest in the ADELAC commuter road, and 30.79% interest in the A79 transversal link located in France; 100% interest in the Warnow Tunnel located in Rostock, Germany; 66.67% interest in the Chicago Skyway situated in Chicago, United States; and 100% interest in the Dulles Greenway located in Virginia, United States. Atlas Arteria Limited was formerly known as Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited and changed its name to Atlas Arteria Limited in May 2018. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF) currently trades at $3.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.98, implying the stock looks roughly 22.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $8.58 per share, and 13 of the 20 models we run sit above the $3.08 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.86, and 7 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.30 (bear) to $6.27 (bull), the price of $3.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Atlas Arteria Limited reported revenue of A$160M in FY2025 versus A$101M in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$259M in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B · P/E ratio 23.7 · P/S ratio 38.4 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Dividend yield 13.0% · Net margin 162% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 29%, MAQAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.30Fair Value $3.98Bull $6.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +59.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.6% vs 5.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → −5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.1% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (45 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)162.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−25.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)13.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
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Is Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.98 versus a price of $3.08, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAQAF?
Our model-based fair value for Atlas Arteria Limited is $3.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.08.
What is the quality score of MAQAF?
Atlas Arteria Limited has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.30, optimistic scenario $6.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlas Arteria Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.98, about +29% upside versus a price of $3.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.30, optimistic scenario $6.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Atlas Arteria Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$160M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Atlas Arteria Limited pay a dividend?
Atlas Arteria Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Atlas Arteria Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAQAF use?
Our models discount Atlas Arteria Limited at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Atlas Arteria Limited that is -1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Atlas Arteria Limited grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies -1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Atlas Arteria Limited (-1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.53 %: that much free cash flow Atlas Arteria Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlas Arteria Limited it is $3.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.08. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atlas Arteria Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MAQAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.08, fair value $3.98, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAQAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.98). For Atlas Arteria Limited the two are $0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlas Arteria Limited worth?
The market values Atlas Arteria Limited at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.08; our models calculate a fair value of $3.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAQAF?
Our models span a range for Atlas Arteria Limited: cautious scenario $2.30, base $3.98, optimistic $6.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAQAF?
Atlas Arteria Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 44.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlas Arteria Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAQAF from its 52-week high?
Atlas Arteria Limited trades at $3.08, about 25% below its 52-week high of $4.09 and 20% above the low of $2.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlas Arteria Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlas Arteria Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.08, calculated fair value $3.98 (+29%), Quality Score 65/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAQAF calculated?
We run Atlas Arteria Limited through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Atlas Arteria Limited currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.08. Our model-based fair value is $3.98, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlas Arteria Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.30 to $6.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Atlas Arteria Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The market capitalisation of Atlas Arteria Limited is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atlas Arteria Limited is 38.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Arteria Limited are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The dividend yield of Atlas Arteria Limited is 13.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The net margin of Atlas Arteria Limited is 162% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlas Arteria Limited is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlas Arteria Limited is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
The operating margin of Atlas Arteria Limited is −25.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Revenue at Atlas Arteria Limited is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Arteria Limited are growing −20.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Atlas Arteria Limited (MAQAF) carry?
The net debt of Atlas Arteria Limited is A$1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026