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M&G plc (MGPUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of M&G plc $1.48, price $4.31, upside -65.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
M&G plc
MGPUF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.48 · Strongly overvalued (−65.6%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −28.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7331 – $4.90 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $1.85 · the $4.31 price screens above the $1.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
M&G plc, through its subsidiaries, provides investment and savings products to institutional clients and individual policyholders in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Asset Management and Life segments.
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M&G plc, through its subsidiaries, provides investment and savings products to institutional clients and individual policyholders in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Asset Management and Life segments. The Asset Management segment offers managed investment products, such as equities, fixed income, and multi-asset, as well as real estate investment products and services to wholesale clients and institutional investors. The Life segment provides corporate pension solutions, individual life and pensions, and international solutions and advice; and Prudential guaranteed income plan. This segment also offers level annuities, which provide a fixed annuity payment; fixed increase annuities, which incorporate a periodic automatic fixed increase in annuity payments; inflation-linked annuities, which incorporate a periodic increase based on a defined inflation index; and with-profits annuities, written in the with-profits fund, combining income features of annuity contracts with the investment-smoothing features of with-profits products. The company was formerly known as M&G Prudential PLC and changed its name to M&G plc in September 2019. M&G plc was founded in 1848 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
M&G plc (MGPUF) currently trades at $4.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.48, 65.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.11 (bear) to $1.85 (bull), the price of $4.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
M&G plc reported revenue of £3.6B in FY2025 versus £16.6B in FY2021, a compound −31.7%/yr. Reported net income was £302M in FY2025, compounding +38.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.3B · P/E ratio 25.3 · P/S ratio 2.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.1700 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −66%, MGPUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.11
Fair Value $1.48
Bull $1.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple
$1.11
$1.48
$1.85
55
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8700
$1.17
$1.74
54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple
$1.11
$1.48
$1.85
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8700
$1.17
$1.74
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
24
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−31.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.2%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.8%
’16
’17
’19
’20
’21
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.7% vs −14.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 36%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.6%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.1% a year for the price.
MGPUF screens overvalued: fair value 66% below the price. Compare with Blackstone Inc →
Compare M&G plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $112.09 | $52.29 | −53% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $93.18 | $29.26 | −69% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | $36.87 | $13.45 | −64% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $116.06 | $197.23 | +70% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $177.78 | $139.37 | −22% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $494.82 | $595.40 | +20% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $122.01 | $103.68 | −15% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $175.73 | $123.42 | −30% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $161.16 | $317.27 | +97% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €68.10 | €136.20 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is M&G plc (MGPUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.48 versus a price of $4.31, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGPUF?
Our model-based fair value for M&G plc is $1.48 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.31.
What is the quality score of MGPUF?
M&G plc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for M&G plc (MGPUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.48 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $1.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the M&G plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.48, about −66% upside versus a price of $4.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $1.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
M&G plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does M&G plc pay a dividend?
M&G plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.76% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into M&G plc (MGPUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, M&G plc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -25.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGPUF use?
Our models discount M&G plc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For M&G plc that is +14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has M&G plc (MGPUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at M&G plc grew -25.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of M&G plc (MGPUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into M&G plc (+14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.29 %: that much free cash flow M&G plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For M&G plc it is $1.48 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $4.31. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is M&G plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MGPUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.31, fair value $1.48, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGPUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.48). For M&G plc the two are $2.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is M&G plc worth?
The market values M&G plc at about $14.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $4.31; our models calculate a fair value of $1.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGPUF?
Our models span a range for M&G plc: cautious scenario $1.11, base $1.48, optimistic $1.85 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $4.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGPUF?
M&G plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for M&G plc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 2.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGPUF from its 52-week high?
M&G plc trades at $4.31, about 12% below its 52-week high of $4.90 and 37% above the low of $3.14 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to M&G plc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is M&G plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $4.31, calculated fair value $1.48 (−66%), Quality Score 49/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGPUF calculated?
We run M&G plc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. M&G plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.31. Our model-based fair value is $1.48, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with M&G plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of M&G plc
How large is the market capitalisation of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The market capitalisation of M&G plc is $14.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of M&G plc is 2.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
Earnings per share at M&G plc are $0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The dividend yield of M&G plc is 4.8% (payout 121%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The net margin of M&G plc is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of M&G plc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of M&G plc is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of M&G plc (MGPUF)?
The operating margin of M&G plc is 48.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at M&G plc (MGPUF)?
Revenue at M&G plc is growing +37.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at M&G plc (MGPUF)?
Earnings per share at M&G plc are growing +5.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does M&G plc (MGPUF) carry?
The net debt of M&G plc is $2.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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