MM Forgings Limited (MMFL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IN · Market cap ₹23.5B
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 16, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +18.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹480.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (₹258.70 to ₹480.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹211.55 – ₹680.20 · fair‑value band ₹258.70 – ₹480.44 · the ₹652.60 price screens above the ₹369.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
Analysis
MM Forgings Limited (MMFL) currently trades at ₹652.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹369.57, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MM Forgings Limited generated revenue of ₹15.9B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at ₹8.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹258.70 (bear case) to ₹480.44 (bull case); at ₹652.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -43%, MMFL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (₹399.43) versus Dividend Discount (₹64.39). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
M M Forgings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells steel forgings in India. The company offers sprocket, flange housing, connecting rod, rail forging, hub, knuckle, front axle beam, universal joint cross, steering and pivot arm, planetary wheel carrier, upper arm shaft, shifter fork, and rear axle spindle.
Full company description
M M Forgings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells steel forgings in India. The company offers sprocket, flange housing, connecting rod, rail forging, hub, knuckle, front axle beam, universal joint cross, steering and pivot arm, planetary wheel carrier, upper arm shaft, shifter fork, and rear axle spindle. It also provides yoke shaft, double yoke, crankshaft, link, yoke, fit yoke, lever, and high pressure valves body and bonnet. The company's products are used for passenger cars, commercial vehicles, off highway vehicles, value/oilfield, agriculture, and engineering components. The company was formerly known as The Madras Motors Ltd and changed its name to M M Forgings Limited in 1993. M M Forgings Limited was founded in 1945 and is based in Chennai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
MM Forgings Limited reported revenue of ₹15.9B in FY2026 versus ₹11.4B in FY2022, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was ₹981M in FY2026, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +13.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MMFL screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $528.64 | $101.35 | -81% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $230.43 | $35.74 | -84% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $68.28 | $59.33 | -13% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥8.87 | ¥3.39 | -62% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥27.08 | ¥8.34 | -69% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥104.36 | ¥44.23 | -58% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥48.83 | ¥24.43 | -50% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥48.40 | ¥8.07 | -83% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥87.37 | ¥42.71 | -51% |
| SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 | ¥3.32 | ¥1.35 | -59% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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